CBO’s Estimate of the President’s Budget: The Five Most Important Facts

1.)   $1.6 Trillion – The CBO estimates the deficit will be $1.6 trillion more under the President’s Budget than the administration claims.

2.)   74.3 Percent – CBO estimates that the debt under the President’s Budget grows from 72.1 percent in 2103 to 74.3 percent as a share of the economy and remains on an upward trajectory. This is far bleaker than the rosy picture painted by OMB.

3.)   Over $1.1 trillion in Gimmicks and Fiction – Even compared to CBO’s baseline the President’s Budget relies on at least $1.1 trillion in gross savings that fail a reality check: $659 billion phony war savings, $446 billion on a stalled immigration reform, and $67 billion from “Buffet Rule” tax gimmick.

4.)   $1.4 Trillion More Taxes and $446 Billion More Spending – Compared to CBO’s baseline, the President’s Budget is pure tax and spend, raising $1.4 trillion in new taxes, while proposing $446 billion in new spending.[1]

5.)   $1.3 Trillion in Rosier Economic Assumptions – $1.3 trillion of the $1.6 trillion difference between the CBO and OMB’s estimate of the President Budget is due to OMB’s use of better economic assumptions.

[1] The net tax increase reduces some interest cost, such that net new outlays total $338 billion.