Insight

Major Rules Ahead in the Fall 2018 Regulatory Agenda

On October 17, the Trump Administration’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) released the fall edition of its Unified Agenda as well as an update on regulatory budgeting under Executive Order (EO) 13,771. The American Action Forum (AAF) has summarized the general findings of those documents here and here. The tables below provide a chronological look at “major” actions that could apply to agencies’ regulatory budgets going forward and – where possible – their potential impact.

The rulemaking entries included in the following tables are those 1) designated as “major rules” that 2) carry a “regulatory,” “deregulatory,” or “other” categorization, and that 3) agencies anticipate to be in either the proposed rule or final rule phase over the next year or so. Where possible, AAF has included an agency-based cost or saving estimate. These were either the proposed version’s estimates, or, in the case of those deregulatory actions with an asterisk, the original cost estimate of the regulation it seeks to repeal or revise.

Using those estimates, the administration could expect roughly $27 billion in total net savings from the rules below. This figure is merely illustrative of the kind of impact that could be expected, as these estimates could change significantly upon finalization and this list contains only a small subset of rules that could potentially affect the next regulatory budget tally. But if this estimate is anywhere near correct, the administration is proposing significant regulatory savings.

October 2018
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
0584-AE57 Department of Agriculture Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Requirements for Able-Bodied Adults Without Dependents Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1990-AA39 Department of Energy Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Contingent Cost Allocation Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT37 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2020 Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT59 Department of Health and Human Services Policy and Technical Changes to the Medicare Advantage and the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit Programs for Contract Year 2020 Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT90 Department of Health and Human Services Health Reimbursement Arrangements and Other Account-Based Group Health Plans Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1615-AA22 Department of Homeland Security Inadmissibility on Public Charge Grounds Other Proposed Rule 1,296
1235-AA21 Department of Labor Tip Regulations Under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2130-AC46 Department of Transportation Passenger Equipment Safety Standards Amendments Deregulatory Final Rule -4,600*

 

November 2018
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
0581-AD54 Department of Agriculture National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard Other Final Rule 5,900
0938-AS59 Department of Health and Human Services Revisions to Requirements for Discharge Planning for Hospitals, Critical Access Hospitals, and Home Health Agencies Regulatory Final Rule 1,900
0938-AT28 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2019 Changes to the End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prospective Payment System, Quality Incentive Program, Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies (DMEPOS) Regulatory Final Rule 9
0938-AT29 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2019 Home Health Prospective Payment System Rate Update and CY 2020 Case-Mix Adjustment Methodology Refinements;Value-Based Purchasing Model; Quality Reporting Requirements Other Final Rule -60
0938-AT30 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2019 Hospital Outpatient PPS Policy Changes and Payment Rates and Ambulatory Surgical Center Payment System Policy Changes and Payment Rates Deregulatory Final Rule -51.4
0938-AT31 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2019 Revisions to Payment Policies Under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Revisions to Medicare Part B and the Quality Payment Program Regulatory Final Rule 3,319
0945-AA10 Department of Health and Human Services Protecting Statutory Conscience Rights in Health Care; Delegations of Authority Regulatory Final Rule 814.3
0910-AF43 Department of Health and Human Services Sunscreen Drug Products For Over-The-Counter-Human Use; Tentative Final Monograph Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0910-AH04 Department of Health and Human Services Mammography Quality Standards Act; Amendments to Part 900 Regulations Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT36 Department of Health and Human Services Requirements for Long-Term Care Facilities: Regulatory Provisions to Promote Program Efficiency, Transparency, and Burden Reduction Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT40 Department of Health and Human Services Medicaid and CHIP Managed Care Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT55 Department of Health and Human Services Proficiency Testing Regulations Related to Analytes and Acceptable Performance Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0955-AA01 Department of Health and Human Services 21st Century Cures Act: Interoperability, Information Blocking, and the ONC Health IT Certification Program Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1652-AA55 Department of Homeland Security Security Training for Surface Transportation Employees Other Final Rule 157.3
1615-AC15 Department of Homeland Security Removing H-4 Dependent Spouses from the Class of Aliens Eligible for Employment Authorization Other Proposed Rule n/a
1545-BP03 Department of the Treasury Capital Gains Invested in Opportunity Zones Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a

 

December 2018
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
1840-AD31 Department of Education Program Integrity; Gainful Employment Other Final Rule -209
0938-AT38 Department of Health and Human Services Adoption of Standards for Health Care Attachments Transactions, Acknowledgments Transactions, Electronic Signatures, and Modification to Referral Certification and Authorization Standard Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT79 Department of Health and Human Services Interoperability and Patient Access Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1651-AB06 Department of Homeland Security Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI)—Noncompliant Traveler Fee Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1140-AA52 Department of Justice Bump-Stock-Type Devices Regulatory Final Rule 298.1
1014-AA39 Department of the Interior Revisions to the Blowout Preventer Systems and Well Control Rule Deregulatory Final Rule -946.2
1515-AE23 Department of the Treasury Modernized Drawback Other Final Rule 58.4
1545-BO69 Department of the Treasury Guidance Under Section 199A (Anti-Abuse) Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1545-BO70 Department of the Treasury Guidance Under Section 199A for Cooperatives Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1545-BO71 Department of the Treasury Guidance Under Section 199A Regulatory Proposed Rule 1,317
1545-BP04 Department of the Treasury Qualified Opportunity Funds Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2132-AB30 Department of Transportation Protecting Transit Operators From the Risk of Assaults Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2900-AQ42 Department of Veterans Affairs Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act Other Final Rule n/a

 

January 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
0584-AE62 Department of Agriculture Revision of Categorical Eligibility in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1840-AD26 Department of Education Institutional Accountability Other Final Rule 1.2
1904-AD34 Department of Energy Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial Water Heating Equipment Regulatory Final Rule 2,500
1904-AD20 Department of Energy Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces and Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Regulatory Proposed Rule 9,200
0938-AT66 Department of Health and Human Services Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Adoption of the Methodology for the HHS-Operated Permanent Risk Adjustment Program for the 2018 Benefit Year Proposed Rule Other Final Rule n/a
1082-AA01 Department of the Interior Revisions to the Requirements for Exploratory Drilling on the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf Deregulatory Proposed Rule -2,050*
1506-AB01 Department of the Treasury Financial Crimes Enforcement Network: Cross-Border Electronic Transmittals of Funds Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2137-AF06 Department of Transportation Pipeline Safety:  Amendments to Parts 192 and 195 to Require Valve Installation and Minimum Rupture Detection Standards Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2900-AQ26 Department of Veterans Affairs VA Claims and Appeals Modernization Deregulatory Final Rule -6.3
2060-AU28 Environmental Protection Agency Renewable Fuel Standard Program Modification of Applicable Volumes, 2020 Standards, and Other Changes Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a

 

February 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
1904-AD15 Department of Energy Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Conventional Cooking Products Regulatory Proposed Rule 800
0970-AC73 Department of Health and Human Services Head Start Service Duration Requirements Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1653-AA77 Department of Homeland Security Visa Security Program Fee Other Proposed Rule n/a
2900-AQ47 Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Community Walk-in Care Other Proposed Rule n/a

 

March 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
1904-AC11 Department of Energy Energy Conservation Standards for Manufactured Housing Regulatory Proposed Rule 4,100
0938-AS84 Department of Health and Human Services Program Integrity Enhancements to the Provider Enrollment Process Regulatory Final Rule 819.7
0930-AA32 Department of Health and Human Services Coordinating Care and Information Sharing in the Treatment of Substance Use Disorders Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT88 Department of Health and Human Services Medicare Coverage of Innovative Technologies Other Proposed Rule n/a
2137-AE72 Department of Transportation Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines, MAOP Reconfirmation, Expansion of Assessment Requirements and Other Related Amendments Regulatory Final Rule 711
2060-AT55 Environmental Protection Agency Repeal of Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units Deregulatory Final Rule -51,600
2060-AT67 Environmental Protection Agency Emission Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions From
Existing Electric Utility Generating Units; Revisions to Emission Guideline Implementing Regulations; Revisions to New Source Review Program
Regulatory Final Rule -6,400

 

April 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
0910-AI08 Department of Health and Human Services Institutional Review Boards; Cooperative Research Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT67 Department of Health and Human Services FY 2020 Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility (IRF) Prospective Payment System Rate Update and Quality Reporting Requirements Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT71 Department of Health and Human Services FY 2020 Hospice Wage Index, Payment Rate Update, and Quality Reporting Requirements Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT73 Department of Health and Human Services Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment System for Acute Care Hospitals and the Long-Term Care Hospital Prospective Payment System and FY 2020 Rates Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT75 Department of Health and Human Services FY 2020 Skilled Nursing Facility (SNFs) Prospective Payment System Rate Update and Quality Reporting Requirements Other Proposed Rule n/a
1545-BO97 Department of the Treasury MEPs and the Unified Plan Rule Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a

 

May 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
1545-BO99 Department of the Treasury Section 4960 Excise Tax on Tax-Exempt Organization Compensation Other Proposed Rule n/a
2127-AL37 Department of Transportation Rear Seat Belt Reminder System Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2900-AQ45 Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Care Agreements Other Interim Final Rule n/a
2900-AQ46 Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Community Care Program Other Interim Final Rule n/a

 

June 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
1840-AD36 Department of Education State Authorization and Related Issues Other Proposed Rule n/a
1840-AD37 Department of Education Accreditation and Related Issues Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AS21 Department of Health and Human Services Hospital and Critical Access Hospital (CAH) Changes to Promote Innovation, Flexibility, and Improvement in Patient Care Regulatory Final Rule 5,700
0938-AT68 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2020 Home Health Prospective Payment System Rate Update and Quality Reporting Requirements Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT70 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2020 Changes to the End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prospective Payment System, Quality Incentive Program, Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies (DMEPOS) Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT72 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2020 Revisions to Payment Policies Under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Revisions to Medicare Part B Other Proposed Rule n/a
0938-AT74 Department of Health and Human Services CY 2020 Hospital Outpatient PPS Policy Changes and Payment Rates and Ambulatory Surgical Center Payment System Policy Changes and Payment Rates Other Proposed Rule n/a
1515-AE03 Department of the Treasury Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) Required for Electronic Entry/Entry Summary (Cargo Release and Related Entry) Filings Deregulatory Final Rule n/a
2120-AK77 Department of Transportation Requirements to File Notice of Construction of Meteorological Evaluation Towers and Other Renewable Energy Projects Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a

 

September 2019
RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION POTENTIAL COSTS/SAVINGS ($M)
0938-AT85 Department of Health and Human Services Miscellaneous Medicare Secondary Payer Clarifications and Updates Regulatory Proposed Rule n/a
1545-BO18 Department of the Treasury Treatment of Certain Interests in Corporations as Stock or Indebtedness Deregulatory Proposed Rule n/a
2127-AK95 Department of Transportation Establish Side Impact Performance Requirements for Child Restraint Systems  (MAP-21) Regulatory Final Rule 3.7

 

AMBIGUOUS RULEMAKINGS

There are also a handful of rulemaking entries within the scope of analysis for which it is difficult to discern their near-term impact (at least based strictly upon the Unified Agenda’s projections).

RIN AGENCY TITLE EO 13771 DESIGNATION ACTION TIME
2127-AL76 Department of Transportation The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021–2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Deregulatory Analyzing Comments Nov 2018
1601-AA52 Department of Homeland Security Ammonium Nitrate Security Program Other Notice of Availability February 2019
0938-AT45 Department of Health and Human Services Medicare Shared Savings Program; Accountable Care Organizations (CMS-1701-F) Deregulatory Final Rule August 2021
0938-AT23 Department of Health and Human Services Regulatory Provisions to Promote Program Efficiency, Transparency, and Burden Reduction (CMS-3346-F) Deregulatory Final Rule September 2021

The first entry, the “SAFE Rule,” lists its next action merely as “Analyzing Comments.” The proposed rule was published this past August and includes total possible estimated savings in excess of half a trillion dollars. In fact, the deregulatory measure’s effect is so monumental that the administration notes that it may be best to consider its impact outside the scope of the regulatory budget. The administration also notes that it anticipates the rule’s final version will come in the next year, despite the Unified Agenda’s ambiguity.

The other three ambiguous rules are notable for their own uncertainties. The “Ammonium Nitrate Security Program” has a rulemaking history going back roughly a decade, and according to the Unified Agenda, the next action involving it is the release of “technical research, testing, and findings related to the feasibility of weaponizing commercially available products containing ammonium nitrate.” The pair of rulemakings from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have a projected finish date in 2021. Given that HHS has a fiscal year (FY) 2019 goal of nearly $9 billion in total savings and these are two recently proposed deregulatory measures, it would not be surprising to see these become final ahead of schedule.

CONCLUSION

The Unified Agenda is hardly a set-in-stone schedule, but it can be helpful in determining the rough timeframe of rulemaking activity. The rules listed above include some of the administration’s most significant actions (e.g. repeal of the Clean Power Plan). Coming out of FY 2018, this administration appears to be building upon its historic deregulatory trend with even more ambitious goals. The actions listed here will undoubtedly play a substantial part in agencies meeting – or exceeding – those goals.

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