June 3, 2010
Obama’s Long Slog
The ADP National Employment Report today showed an increase of 55,000 nonfarm private jobs in May, disappointing on the low side. Firms of all sizes showed increases, but weakness persists in the goods-producing sector, which lost 23,000 jobs.
The ADP data suggest a weaker-than-expect employment report tomorrow.
• The Labor Department report for May will be boosted by massive Census hiring – some analysts expect the top-line to show 500,000 jobs. Stripping away these temporary, government jobs will reveal the current strength of the recovery.
• Private-sector employment will exceed 100,000 new jobs, but will top out substantially short of 200,000.
The labor market fundamentals point to a long, sluggish recovery.
• Wage, employment, and hours growth do not add up to enough income to support a spending spree by households.
• Job growth continues to fall short of what is necessary to lower unemployment.
Bottom line: The private sector continues to create jobs, but only by overcoming headwinds from the big-spend, big-tax, big-regulation, big-deficit policy environment. Given the inherent difficulties of recovering from a financial crisis and deep recession, workers would be better served by pro-growth, pro-market policies.