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Weekly Checkup
October 22, 2014
State-by-State Estimates of Individual Mandate Payments
Using data on household income and health insurance coverage maintained by the Census Bureau and McKinsey estimates on previously uninsured households enrolled through the Health Insurance Marketplace, the American Action Forum was able to construct state-level estimates of individual mandate payments. After accounting for exemptions, AAF estimates that 5.2 million people will be subject to the individual mandate penalty for being uninsured in 2014 and will pay a total of $5.8 billion in additional taxes. The AAF estimates include the exemptions for unauthorized immigrants, households that do not file income taxes, households that earn less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, and households that cannot purchase a Bronze plan with 8 percent of household income, but do not attempt to project how many households may apply for one of the many hardship exemptions.
|
State |
Population Required to Pay Penalty |
Total Tax Payments (millions) |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 58,000 | 60 |
| Alaska | 10,000 | 15 |
| Arizona | 160,000 | 155 |
| Arkansas | 34,000 | 36 |
| California | 561,000 | 717 |
| Colorado | 96,000 | 105 |
| Connecticut | 27,000 | 43 |
| Delaware | 8,000 | 10 |
| District of Columbia | 11,000 | 14 |
| Florida | 358,000 | 381 |
| Georgia | 124,000 | 144 |
| Hawaii | 28,000 | 33 |
| Idaho | 23,000 | 24 |
| Illinois | 288,000 | 284 |
| Indiana | 58,000 | 71 |
| Iowa | 45,000 | 40 |
| Kansas | 64,000 | 58 |
| Kentucky | 93,000 | 83 |
| Louisiana | 90,000 | 102 |
| Maine | 10,000 | 13 |
| Maryland | 123,000 | 154 |
| Massachusetts | 56,000 | 65 |
| Michigan | 144,000 | 141 |
| Minnesota | 126,000 | 114 |
| Mississippi | 17,000 | 23 |
| Missouri | 90,000 | 89 |
| Montana | 17,000 | 18 |
| Nebraska | 24,000 | 22 |
| Nevada | 67,000 | 76 |
| New Hampshire | 17,000 | 23 |
| New Jersey | 88,000 | 130 |
| New Mexico | 43,000 | 47 |
| New York | 193,000 | 274 |
| North Carolina | 94,000 | 107 |
| North Dakota | * | * |
| Ohio | 115,000 | 123 |
| Oklahoma | 129,000 | 113 |
| Oregon | 104,000 | 95 |
| Pennsylvania | 213,000 | 212 |
| Rhode Island | 14,000 | 16 |
| South Carolina | 64,000 | 70 |
| South Dakota | 6,000 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 171,000 | 147 |
| Texas | 816,000 | 860 |
| Utah | 94,000 | 92 |
| Vermont | 2,000 | 3 |
| Virginia | 135,000 | 163 |
| Washington | 109,000 | 123 |
| West Virginia | 22,000 | 24 |
| Wisconsin | 49,000 | 55 |
| Wyoming | 4,000 | 7 |
| United States | 5,294,000 | 5,778 |
Data Sources
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 – 2012.
Department of Health and Human Services, Health plan information for individuals and families, 2014, available at: https://www.healthcare.gov/health-plan-information/
Breakaway Policy Strategies, HIX Compare Dataset, 2014, available at: http://www.rwjf.org/en/research-publications/find-rwjf-research/2014/03/breakaway-policy-dataset.html
