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State-by-State Estimates of Individual Mandate Payments

Using data on household income and health insurance coverage maintained by the Census Bureau and McKinsey estimates on previously uninsured households enrolled through the Health Insurance Marketplace, the American Action Forum was able to construct state-level estimates of individual mandate payments. After accounting for exemptions, AAF estimates that 5.2 million people will be subject to the individual mandate penalty for being uninsured in 2014 and will pay a total of $5.8 billion in additional taxes. The AAF estimates include the exemptions for unauthorized immigrants, households that do not file income taxes, households that earn less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, and households that cannot purchase a Bronze plan with 8 percent of household income, but do not attempt to project how many households may apply for one of the many hardship exemptions.

State

Population Required to Pay Penalty

Total Tax Payments (millions)

Alabama 58,000 60
Alaska 10,000 15
Arizona 160,000 155
Arkansas 34,000 36
California 561,000 717
Colorado 96,000 105
Connecticut 27,000 43
Delaware 8,000 10
District of Columbia 11,000 14
Florida 358,000 381
Georgia 124,000 144
Hawaii 28,000 33
Idaho 23,000 24
Illinois 288,000 284
Indiana 58,000 71
Iowa 45,000 40
Kansas 64,000 58
Kentucky 93,000 83
Louisiana 90,000 102
Maine 10,000 13
Maryland 123,000 154
Massachusetts 56,000 65
Michigan 144,000 141
Minnesota 126,000 114
Mississippi 17,000 23
Missouri 90,000 89
Montana 17,000 18
Nebraska 24,000 22
Nevada 67,000 76
New Hampshire 17,000 23
New Jersey 88,000 130
New Mexico 43,000 47
New York 193,000 274
North Carolina 94,000 107
North Dakota * *
Ohio 115,000 123
Oklahoma 129,000 113
Oregon 104,000 95
Pennsylvania 213,000 212
Rhode Island 14,000 16
South Carolina 64,000 70
South Dakota 6,000 6
Tennessee 171,000 147
Texas 816,000 860
Utah 94,000 92
Vermont 2,000 3
Virginia 135,000 163
Washington 109,000 123
West Virginia 22,000 24
Wisconsin 49,000 55
Wyoming 4,000 7
United States 5,294,000 5,778

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 – 2012.

Department of Health and Human Services, Health plan information for individuals and families, 2014, available at: https://www.healthcare.gov/health-plan-information/

Breakaway Policy Strategies, HIX Compare Dataset, 2014, available at: http://www.rwjf.org/en/research-publications/find-rwjf-research/2014/03/breakaway-policy-dataset.html

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