Fiscal Policy Outlook August, FY2022 Snapshot 2022: $1,375 Billion Deficit HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SPENDING AND TAXATION Mandatory Spending Crowds Out The Budget MAJOR COMPONENTS OF MANDATORY SPENDING ENTITLEMENTS AND INTEREST IS SQUEEZING OTHER PRIORITIES MANDATORY SPENDING IS BAD: INTEREST IS EVEN WORSE THE U.S. IS BORROWING TO PAY INTEREST COSTS The U.S. Runs a Structural Primary Deficit DEBT ULTIMATELY ON AN UPWARD TRAJECTORY DEBT ULTIMATELY APPROACHES WHAT DRIVES OUR DEBT? Congressional Budget Process Timetable Gordon GrayFormer Vice President for Economic PolicyGordon Gray is the former Vice President for Economic Policy at the American Action Forum. Chart Book Index Fiscal Policy Outlook August, FY2022 Snapshot 2022: $1,375 Billion Deficit HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SPENDING AND TAXATION Mandatory Spending Crowds Out The Budget MAJOR COMPONENTS OF MANDATORY SPENDING ENTITLEMENTS AND INTEREST IS SQUEEZING OTHER PRIORITIES MANDATORY SPENDING IS BAD: INTEREST IS EVEN WORSE THE U.S. IS BORROWING TO PAY INTEREST COSTS The U.S. Runs a Structural Primary Deficit DEBT ULTIMATELY ON AN UPWARD TRAJECTORY DEBT ULTIMATELY APPROACHES WHAT DRIVES OUR DEBT? Congressional Budget Process Timetable Share Chart Book
Consumer Price Index March 2024 M/M Change: +0.4% Y/Y Change: +3.5% Measures the change in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households.
Core Consumer Price Index March 2024 M/M Change: +0.4% Y/Y Change: +3.8% Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index March 2024 M/M Change: +0.3% Y/Y Change: +2.8% A measure of prices paid for goods and services excluding food and energy; the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Producer Price Index March 2024 M/M Change: +0.2% Y/Y Change: +2.1% Measures the change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.
Initial Jobless Claims Week ending April 27, 2024 208,000 Change: 0 4-week Moving Average: 213,500 Weekly unemployment insurance claims reported by each state’s unemployment insurance program offices.
Consumer Confidence April 2024 Index: 97.0 Change: -6.1 Details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates; 1985=100.
ADP Employment: April 2024 Change in U.S. Private Employment: +192,000 Measures change in private-sector employment using ADP payroll data covering more than half a million companies with more than 25 million employees.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft March 2024 $73.8B M/M Change: +0.2% Y/Y Change: -0.8% A new order is a communication of an intention to buy for immediate or future delivery.
New Residential Construction March 2024 1,321,000 M/M Change: -14.7% Y/Y Change: -4.3% Privately owned housing starts; seasonally adjusted at an annual rate.