President Trump promised an American energy renaissance and on his first day in office signed an executive order entitled Unleashing American Energy. A particular focus of this effort has been domestic oil production. As we approach the one-year anniversary, what has been the impact?

Certainly, the economy, especially the household sector, has benefited from lower oil prices. As shown below, oil (West Texas Intermediate) has dropped from roughly $80 a barrel to under $60. This has produced much lower gasoline prices and has generally provided a cushion against the upward price pressures from tariffs.

Are Trump Administration policies responsible for the reduced price? The chart also shows that the downward trend began in late 2023, prior to the inauguration of President Trump.

A similar picture emerges when one looks at production directly. The next chart indicates that U.S. crude oil production has approached 14 million barrels per day – a record high. Again, however, the current levels of output are consistent with trend growth from prior years. Despite the Biden Administration’s strident language on fossil fuels, most of the promised restrictions applied to future years; there was no immediate cutback on production.

The same is true if one looks at the year-over-year growth in crude oil output in the United States. Calendar year 2025 is up modestly from 2024 but hardly stands out as a growth boom.

The Trump Administration’s support of deregulation, rapid cost recovery for new investments, and reversal of renewable fuels subsidies does bode well for the future of the oil and natural gas sectors. But claims of an American energy renaissance appear premature and overstated.