Op-Ed

Single-Payer Talk Needs a Reality Check

The unicorn of progressive health care reform – the single-payer – is back in the news. This past Sunday. Sen. Bernie Sanders released his “Medicare for All” single-payer health care reform. The sales job is seductive: “As a patient, all you need to do is go to the doctor and show your insurance card” and you get “the entire continuum of health care, from inpatient to outpatient care; preventive to emergency care; primary care to specialty care, including long-term and palliative care; vision, hearing and oral health care; mental health and substance abuse services; as well as prescription medications, medical equipment, supplies, diagnostics and treatments” with “no more copays, no more deductibles.”

But it’s not just cheaper for families, it’s cheaper for everyone! “Bernie’s plan will cost over $6 trillion less than the current health care system over the next ten years,” it says.

Time for a reality check. The first claim is that a single-payer “significantly reduces overhead, administrative costs and complexity.” Perhaps, but in 2014 the U.S. spent $3.3 trillion on health care. Of that, only $195 billion was the overhead and profits of private insurers. But even that overstates the potential savings; government programs have significant overhead as well, and those administrative costs are rising rapidly. Claiming to lower the national costs of health care by focusing on administrative costs is like going on a diet by cutting back on Splenda.

 A more meaningful focus is the promise to “stand up to drug companies” and more generally to “negotiate fair prices.” This means price controls and not negotiated “fair prices.” Single-payer advocates are usually quite honest about government price controls on drugs. But there is nothing about a federal single-payer that permits it to negotiate more effectively than private insurance with the only hospital in a rural county. In the end, “costs” will be kept down because the government can use its powers to fix prices.
 Unfortunately, using the power of the state to keep down prices kicks off a spiral of unattractive, unintended consequences. First, either the government will have to decide who gets the care – that’s politely called “rationing” and bluntly labeled “death panels” – or it will somehow provide massive amounts of underpriced care. The former offends on many fronts, while the latter means that single-payer is a lie: There are no savings.

Second, price controls means that there will be little or no return to innovation. American health care has many challenges, but it has maintained the finest medical science on the globe and made it a magnet for those seeking high-quality treatments. Making innovation and medical technology production less attractive in the United States – the world’s medical innovation superpower – will mean that the patients around the world will see cures and treatments later than they otherwise would.

Third, the fact that exclusively the government will control scarce treatment and research dollars raises the specter of massive cronyism. The politically connected will get treated, the effective lobbyists will get their companies reimbursed, and the average American – the supposed beneficiary of this system – will be powerless. To the extent that the current system lacks the sort of competitive market forces and transparency that would actually “bend the cost curve,” giving the government exclusive control will only exacerbate that tendency.

 And that is the larger lesson of single-payer: the average American will pay. The Sanders campaign estimates that – even under its optimistic assumptions – taxes will have to be $1.3 trillion higher every year. A 40 percent increase in taxes would likely be a death blow to the meager pace of U.S. recovery – hurting, again, the wages and incomes of working Americans. The new 6.2 percent payroll tax would harm those trying to find a job. And it would not be “paid” by employers – it would show up as higher prices or lower paychecks for workers. A single-payer is economically damaging and fiscally irresponsible – precisely why Vermont abandoned its quixotic pursuit a few years ago.

A single-payer is substantively flawed and would never survive as a general election policy proposal. Why, then, has it emerged as a focus of the Democratic primary? The simple answer is that the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) is just as unpopular on the far left as it is on the right. Supporting a single-payer isn’t a realistic proposal, but it is a good way for Democrats to show that they understand just how unpopular the Affordable Care Act is.

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