On July 4, President Trump signed H.R. 1 (commonly known as the One Big Beautiful Bill), the crux of his domestic policy agenda, into law. In a new insight, Director of Fiscal Policy Jordan Haring provides a closer look at the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) score of the enacted legislation.

Key points:

• H.R. 1 makes permanent the 2017 tax cuts; includes President Trump’s campaign promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay, boosts funding for border security; and makes significant reforms to Medicaid, among other reforms.
• CBO estimates the legislation will increase primary (non-interest) budget deficits by $3.4 trillion over the fiscal year 2025–2034 budget window.
• Notably, CBO’s score of the legislation is a conventional estimate, meaning it does not include the economic effects of the legislation; a dynamic estimate of the legislation would yield different results.

Read the analysis.