In a new insight, Director of Fiscal Policy Jordan Haring provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) score of the House-passed reconciliation bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

Key points:

• CBO estimates the House-passed OBBBA would increase primary (non-interest) budget deficits by $2.4 trillion over the fiscal year (FY) 2025–2034 budget window; with interest, the OBBBA would increase budget deficits by $3.0 trillion through FY 2034.
• If the OBBBA is enacted, the national debt would climb to 124 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of FY 2034, compared to 117 percent of GDP under current law.
• The OBBBA is currently in the Senate for consideration, and changes are likely; thus the actual fiscal impact of the legislation is likely to change as it moves through Congress.

Read the analysis.