In a new insight, Director of Fiscal Policy Jordan Haring walks through the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) recently released February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook.

Key points:

• CBO projects federal debt held by the public will rise from 99 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of fiscal year (FY) 2025 to 101 percent of GDP by the end of FY 2026, reach a new record of 108 percent of GDP by FY 2030, and continue to grow to 120 percent of GDP by the end of FY 2036.
• Budget deficits will total 6.1 percent of GDP ($24.4 trillion) over the FY 2027 to FY 2036 budget window and 6.7 percent of GDP ($3.1 trillion) in FY 2036; spending will total 23.8 percent of GDP ($94.6 trillion) and revenue will total 17.7 percent of GDP ($70.2 trillion) over the next decade.
• Since CBO’s last baseline in January, the net effect of legislative, economic, and technical changes increased projected deficits by $1.4 trillion over the FY 2026 to FY 2035 period; the agency also projects that economic growth and inflation will slow through 2026 and remain moderate thereafter.

Read the analysis.