The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its March 2025 Long-term Budget Outlook that projects federal debt held by the public will rise from 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of fiscal year (FY) 2025 to 156 percent of GDP by the end of 2055 under current law. In a new insight, Director of Fiscal Policy Jordan Haring walks through the key projections of the budget outlook, including those on revenue, spending, debt, deficits, and trust funds.

An excerpt:

The long-term budget outlook has only mildly improved since CBO’s March 2024 Long-term Budget Outlook. CBO now projects the budget deficit to grow to 7.2 percent of GDP by the end of FY 2054, which is 1.3 percentage points below its March projection of 8.5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise to 154 percent of GDP by the end of 2054, 12 percentage points below the 166 percent of GDP that CBO projected in March.

Read the analysis.