American Action Forum experts Jordan Haring and Michael Baker analyze the 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees reports released today. The Medicare Trustees estimate the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund will go bankrupt by 2033, and the theoretically combined Social Security trust funds will be insolvent by 2034, both the same as last year’s estimates.

Key points:

• Upon insolvency of the HI trust fund, Medicare Part A benefits will be slashed by 11 percent.
• The Social Security Trustees estimate the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete its reserves by 2032 and the much smaller Disability Insurance trust fund will remain solvent at least through 2100; the theoretically combined Social Security trust funds will be insolvent by 2034, at which point all beneficiaries regardless of age, income, or need will face a 17 percent benefit cut.

Read the analysis.