The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a new set of economic projections for 2025 to 2028. In a new insight, Director of Fiscal Policy Jordan Haring compares CBO’s forecast and finds that it is much more pessimistic than recent projections from the Federal Reserve and the administration’s Office of Management and Budget.

She concludes:

Since CBO’s January economic forecast, the outlook for fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (real GDP) growth has fallen from 1.9 percent in 2025 to 1.4 percent, while the Federal Reserve expects real GDP growth of 1.6 percent and OMB forecasts 1.8-percent growth. Lower net immigration and the downward impact of tariffs on economic growth more than offset the positive impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in CBO’s forecast for 2025. In 2026, CBO projects 2.2-percent real GDP growth as the OBBB’s boost to consumption, private investment, and federal purchases materialize and uncertainty about tariffs wanes. The Federal Reserve expects real GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and OMB forecasts 3.2-percent growth. CBO expects real GDP growth to stabilize around 1.8 percent thereafter, in line with its previous forecast and the Federal Reserve’s long-run projections. OMB, meanwhile, expects average long-term economic growth of 2.9 percent.

Read the analysis.