The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) mandates that Dominion Energy achieve carbon-free electricity by 2045. In a new insight, Director of Energy and Environmental Policy Shuting Pomerleau and Irene Ko discuss the tension between VCEA mandates and the rapid growth of AI data center electricity demand and why the law’s carbon-free targets are likely unachievable.

Key points:

• With Dominion’s projected summer peak load growing by 70 percent between 2022–2045, primarily driven by soaring demand from AI data centers, the company indicated in its recent filings that it does not appear viable to fully retire fossil fuel generation to meet VCEA compliance by 2045—a conclusion supported by a separate study commissioned by the commonwealth.
• Notably, the VCEA includes a provision allowing exemptions if Dominion demonstrates that compliance with the carbon-free targets would threaten service reliability.
• Lawmakers in Virginia should consider adopting a more hands-off approach that allows the market to figure out how to best meet AI data centers’ exploding power demands while also reducing power-sector emissions.

Read the analysis.