President Trump has proposed imposing a 100-percent tariff to protect the domestic film industry from foreign competitors and bring movie production back to the United States, marking the first potential service-based tariff in U.S. history. In new research, Trade Policy Analyst Jacob Jensen explores the two possible structures such a tariff could take and the economic toll of each.

He concludes:

There has yet to be a clearly defined path forward for President Trump’s proposed movie tariff, the first of its kind to impact a U.S. service. It is also unclear whether such a tariff would narrowly impact foreign-film studios or, more broadly, any film studio that produces a movie outside the United States. If the tariff takes the latter approach, U.S. studios will be severely impacted and lose the competitiveness that has made them globally dominant. This move would also likely invite retaliation that further restricts U.S. cultural exports. Ultimately, a movie tariff would raise costs for U.S. consumers as well as limit available entertainment options within the U.S. market.

Read the analysis