June 20, 2012
New Survey Finds Supreme Court Insiders Believe Oral Arguments Indicate Court Significantly More Lik
WASHINGTON – Supreme Court insiders now believe there is a better than 50-50 chance that the Supreme Court will strike the individual mandate from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), a significant jump from before the Court's oral arguments. The insiders survey, comprised of a representative sample of former Supreme Court clerks and attorneys who have argued before the Court, was commissioned by the American Action Forum and Center Forward, and was conducted by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies.
Prior to the oral arguments in March, Supreme Court insiders on average thought that the probability the SCOTUS majority would find the individual mandate unconstitutional was 35 percent. When polled in June, this rose to 57 percent, a 22 percentage point jump.
“This is a fascinating snapshot of how true experts believe the Supreme Court will act on the future of American healthcare,” said American Action Forum President Douglas Holtz-Eakin. “Experts believe the oral arguments revealed significant insights into the Court's thinking. The Forum is proud to have contributed to the Court's evidence, submitting an amicus brief from over 200 economists that was mentioned multiple times during oral arguments.”
“Amidst the abundance of partisan rhetoric and political punditry on both sides of the aisle, this poll provides unique insight from a cross-section of experts with intimate knowledge of the inner-workings of the Supreme Court” said Executive Director of Center Forward Cori Smith. “As we get closer to this decision, Center Forward will continue to provide a forum for responsible dialogue across the political spectrum on a broad range of issues, including health care.”
Read the executive summary from Purple Insight's Doug Usher here.
Read the full survey and methodology here.