The United States’ apprehension of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has spurred much discussion of that country’s oil production. In a new insight, Director of Energy and Environmental Policy Shuting Pomerleau provides an overview of Venezuela’s crude oil reserve and analyzes the potential challenges to foreign investment, including uncertainty in political stability, muted appetite of global oil markets, the country’s deteriorating infrastructure, and the world’s transition to clean energy.

Key points:

• President Trump has urged U.S. oil companies to invest in the Venezuelan oil industry—to “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”
• Despite having one of the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s crude oil production has dropped substantially from about 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997 to 0.9 million in 2024, which is about 1 percent of the world’s total crude oil production; the Venezuelan heavy crude is suitable for U.S. refining capabilities.
• In view of the major challenges, it is unlikely that Venezuelan oil production and exports will recover significantly over the short term, which means that it will have a minimal impact on the world’s oil market; it remains to be seen how geopolitical developments will unfold over the next several months and how they will affect the oil industry in the country.

Read the analysis.