(Not So) Fun Fact: The European Union may target exports of U.S. services in its latest round of proposed retaliatory measures, coming a few weeks after the United States proposed a 100-percent tariff on foreign films.

The Indirect Impact of Russia Tariffs

What’s Happening: On July 14, President Trump issued another tariff threat, this time directed at Russia. If there is no Russia-Ukraine peace deal within 50 days, the president declared, any U.S. imports from Russia will be hit with a 100-percent tariff, along with any countries that buy Russian energy via “secondary tariffs.” Congress has also stepped into the tariff arena with the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (H.R. 2548 and S. 1241). This sanctions package, introduced in both the House and Senate in early April, has bipartisan support and approves tariffs of up to 500 percent on imports from Russia as well as any countries purchasing, selling, or transferring Russian energy products.

Why It Matters: The United States imported just under $3 billion worth of goods from Russia in 2024 and a little over $2 billion as of May 2025. Despite the 24-percent increase in imports compared to the same period last year, Russia is not a significant trade partner of the United States, representing just 0.09 percent of all U.S. imports or about 1 percent of Russian exports. Any direct tariff would be a rounding error in terms of trade disruption for both countries. It is worth noting that there are a number of products the United States imports primarily from Russia, such as mineral and chemical fertilizers, that if tariffed could significantly impact U.S. farmers. But this is a very narrow concern in the grand scheme of current trade policy. The real consequences of this recent tariff proposal would come from the “secondary tariffs” on countries that import oil, gas, uranium, and other energy products from Russia. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, dozens of countries purchase Russian energy in some form, the top five being China, India, Turkey, those of the European Union, and Brazil. If the United States were to impose tariffs on all of these countries, it would impact almost $2.5 trillion in U.S. imports or 76 percent of all imported goods. Focusing on just the top five purchasers impacts over $1.3 trillion in goods or 40 percent of total U.S. imports. Whether these “secondary tariffs” are 100 percent or 500 percent, this would effectively constitute a U.S. embargo on the world, shutting down global trade and causing supply shocks not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Any goods that make it into the United States would be those that are irreplaceable for the U.S. market and would face exorbitant price hikes passed on to consumers. In short, it is highly impractical that a tariff of 100 percent or greater would be implemented to force Russia to the negotiating table.

Looking Ahead: Trump’s Russia tariff is set to kick in on September 2, unless it is further delayed or some sort of Russia-Ukraine deal is struck in the interim. There has been no clear progress in the House or Senate on passing the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, although it is beginning to garner greater discussion. Given this tariff threat is among numerous other proposals, and the larger August 1 tariff deadline is right around the corner, it will likely fade into the ether of trade news. If September 2 approaches with no negotiation progress, it is possible that Trump slaps a 100-percent tariff solely on Russia. This would be the best move the administration could make to avoid criticism of backing down while also avoiding immense economic costs.