U6 Fix
March 7, 2025
Jobs Report Confirms Fed Will Remain in a Holding Pattern
Job growth was a bit softer than expected in February as employers added 151,000 new hires to their payrolls. The three-month average dipped from 236,000 in January to 200,000 in February. Combined revisions to December and January data showed 2,000 fewer jobs were created during those months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent and has been range-bound between 4.0 percent and 4.2 percent since May 2024. Average hourly earnings slowed to 0.3 percent in February from 0.4 percent in the prior month. Notably, the government added just 11,000 employees, a slowdown from 44,000 in the prior month as the federal government cut 10,000 jobs. The jobs report confirms that the Fed will likely remain in a holding pattern as it awaits the effects of tariffs and the potential for additional federal government job cuts and the downstream effects of any spending cuts.
Employers added 151,000 new hires to their payrolls in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector firms added 140,000 workers, a quicker pace than the revised 81,000 in January. Government hiring weakened during the month, adding just 11,000 new employees as the federal government slashed 10,000 jobs. Goods-producing industries’ hiring bounced back, gaining 34,000 jobs during the month after shedding 7,000 jobs in January. The construction sector, which was likely hampered by unseasonably cold weather in January, added 19,000 workers while manufacturing added 10,000 new hires. Service-providing industries’ hiring increased 106,000 as job growth in the health care and social services sector remained strong, adding 63,100 jobs. Leisure and hospitality shed jobs for the second-straight month, cutting 16,000 positions in February after a drop of 14,000 in January. The retail trade sector also slashed 6,300 jobs. The temporary help services sector cut 12,300 positions. Data revisions to prior months were mixed. Payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000 and the data for January was revised down by 18,000. Combined, employment gains were 2,000 fewer than previously reported.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent in February from 4.0 percent in January. The labor force participation rate dipped to 62.4 percent from 62.6 percent in January as 385,000 workers left the labor force. The household survey showed that the number of employed slumped 588,000 while the number of unemployed increased by 203,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents in February – a 0.3-percent monthly increase. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 4.0 percent. Average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers increased by 9 cents, which was a 0.3-percent monthly gain, a slowdown from the 0.4-percent monthly rise in January.
Data junkies, here’s your fix: The February U-6 (the broadest measure of unemployment) shot up to 8.0 percent from 7.5 percent in the prior month.





