Executive Summary

• The House recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which the Congressional Budget Office estimates would increase primary (non-interest) budget deficits by $2.4 trillion over the fiscal year (FY) 2025–2034 budget window; with interest, the OBBBA would increase budget deficits by $3.0 trillion through FY 2034.
• If the OBBBA is enacted, the national debt would climb to 124 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of FY 2034, compared to 117 percent of GDP under current law.
• The OBBBA is currently in the Senate for consideration, and changes are likely; thus, the actual fiscal impact of the legislation is likely to change as it moves through Congress.

Introduction

The House recently passed its fiscal year (FY) 2025 reconciliation legislation: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) score of the OBBBA estimates that it would increase primary (non-interest) budget deficits by $2.4 trillion over the fiscal year (FY) 2025–2034 budget window. Including interest costs, the legislation would increase budget deficits by $3.0 trillion and boost the national debt to 124 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of FY 2034, compared to 117 percent of GDP under current law.

A Closer Look at the Provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

The FY 2025 budget resolution adopted by the House and Senate included reconciliation instructions to 11 House committees to allow up to $3.3 trillion of primary deficit increases over the FY 2025–2034 budget window (the budget resolution instructs the Senate to craft measures that would increase primary deficits by up to $2.0 trillion). CBO’s score of the House-passed OBBBA estimates that the 11 committees’ reconciliation measures and the interactions between them would increase primary budget deficits by $2.4 trillion through FY 2034, which is the net effect of $4.2 trillion of gross costs that is partially offset by $1.7 trillion of gross savings. After including the $551 billion in higher interest costs that would come from the additional borrowing, the OBBBA would increase budget deficits by $3.0 trillion through FY 2034. While CBO scores the OBBA as increasing budget deficits over the next decade, the Administration has argued the revenue from the tariffs it’s imposed through executive action will effectively offset this cost. In fact, CBO recently estimated that the administration’s tariffs will reduce budget deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.

Summary of Provisions in the OBBBA

Committee	FY 2025-2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Agriculture	-$238.1 billion
Armed Services	$144.0 billion
Education and Workforce	-$349.1 billion
Energy and Commerce	-$1.1 trillion
Financial Services	-$5.2 billion
Homeland Security	$79.1 billion
Judiciary	$9.0 billion
Natural Resources	-$18.3 billion
Oversight and Government Reform	-$12.4 billion
Transportation and Infrastructure	-$36.5 billion
Ways and Means	$3.8 trillion
Interactions	$175.0 billion
Total Primary Deficit Increases	$2.4 trillion
Interest	$551 billion
Total Budget Deficit Increases	$3.0 trillion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Agriculture Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Agriculture Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $230.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $238.1 billion through FY 2034.

Agriculture Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Establish SNAP matching funds requirement for states beginning in FY 2028	-$128.3 billion
Increase the age limit for SNAP work requirements from 54 to 64, limit exemptions for caregivers of children under age 7, and close loopholes in work requirement waivers	-$92.5 billion
Prohibit SNAP benefit increases beyond inflation	-$36.8 billion
Reduce federal share of costs for administering SNAP from 50 to 25 percent	-$27.4 billion
Exclude household internet expenses from SNAP benefit calculations	-$11.0 billion
Use SNAP database to prevent multiple issuances of other federal benefits	-$7.4 billion
Other savings	-$17.2 billion
Increase farm subsidies and other agricultural safety net programs	$52.3 billion
Provide funding for agricultural trade promotion and facilitation, research, forestry, and energy	$4.1 billion
Other costs	$2.0 billion
Interactions among provisions	$24.0 billion
Subtotal, Agriculture Committee	-$238.1 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Armed Services Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Armed Services Committee to construct reconciliation measures to increase budget deficits by a maximum amount of $100.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would cost $144.0 billion through FY 2034.

Armed Services Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Funding for shipbuilding	$31.8 billion
Funding for air and missile defense	$23.5 billion
Funding for munitions and industrial base	$19.5 billion
Funding for low-cost weapons, audits, and cybersecurity	$13.4 billion
Funding for nuclear forces	$12.6 billion
Funding for military readiness	$10.9 billion
Funding for Indo-Pacific Command	$10.5 billion
Funding to improve the quality of life for military personnel	$8.1 billion
Funding for air superiority	$6.8 billion
Funding for border security	$4.9 billion
Other spending	$1.9 billion
Subtotal, Armed Services Committee	$144.0 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Education and Workforce Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Education and Workforce Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $330.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $349.1 billion through FY 2034.

Education and Workforce Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Terminate all student loan repayment plans authorized under income-contingent repayment, amend terms of income-based repayment, eliminate or reform certain student loan deferments and forbearances, reform terms of student loan rehabilitation and Public Service Loan Forgiveness, and make other reforms	-$294.6 billion
Terminate authority to make Grad PLUS loans and subsidized loans for undergraduate students, amend maximum annual limit for unsubsidized loans, require undergraduate students to exhaust their unsubsidized loans before parents can utilize Parent PLUS loans, and reform student eligibility for loans	-$51.7 billion
Require confirmation that any new regulations or executive actions related to the student loan program will not increase federal government costs	-$31.8 billion
Permanently repeal 90/10 rule, Gainful Employment rule, and rules pertaining to borrower defense to repayment and closed school discharges	-$9.0 billion
Establish accountability mechanisms for colleges and universities participating in Direct Loan program, and create PROMISE grants program to provide performance-based grants to colleges and universities	-$6.2 billion
Reform eligibility requirements for Pell Grants and provide $10.5 billion of funding through FY 2028 to reduce Pell Grant shortfall	$2.8 billion
Interactions among provisions	$41.3 billion
Subtotal, Education and Workforce Committee	-$349.1 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Energy and Commerce Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Energy and Commerce Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $880.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $1.1 trillion through FY 2034.

Energy and Commerce Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Energy, Environment, and Communications
Repeal EPA rule related to emissions standards for light- and medium-duty vehicles and repeal NHTSA rule related to CAFE standards	-$104.7 billion
Hold spectrum auctions	-$88.0 billion
Repeal and rescind funding from energy and environment projects	-$5.2 billion
Other energy and environment savings	-$0.6 billion
Replenish Strategic Petroleum Reserve	$2.0 billion
Funding for artificial intelligence and IT modernization	$0.5 billion
Health Care
Require states to establish Medicaid work requirements	-$335.6 billion
Reform Medicaid eligibility and enrollment rules	-$188.6 billion
Address waste, fraud, and abuse in Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges	-$105.1 billion
Moratorium on new or increased provider taxes	-$86.8 billion
Revise limit for certain state-directed payments	-$71.8 billion
Increase frequency of Medicaid eligibility redetermination for certain individuals	-$60.0 billion
Requirements regarding waiver of uniform tax requirement for Medicaid Provider Tax	-$33.9 billion
Fund ACA cost-sharing reductions	-$28.2 billion
Moratorium on staffing standards rule for long-term care facilities	-$23.1 billion
Sunset eligibility for increased FMAP for new expansion states	-$12.7 billion
Reduce expansion FMAP for states providing payments for health care to certain individuals	-$11.0 billion
Modify Medicaid cost-sharing requirements	-$8.2 billion
Modify retroactive coverage under Medicaid and CHIP	-$6.3 billion
Modernize and ensure PBM accountability	-$0.4 billion
Other health care savings	-$5.3 billion
Modify update to the conversion factor in the physician fee schedule in Medicare	$8.9 billion
Exempt certain orphan drug manufacturers from drug price negotiations	$4.9 billion
Other health care costs	$1.1 billion
Interactions among provisions	$78.9 billion
Subtotal, Energy and Commerce Committee	-$1.1 trillion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Financial Services Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Financial Services Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $1.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $5.2 billion through FY 2034.

Financial Services Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Reduce the maximum amount the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau can request annually from the Federal Reserve to cover operating expenses and limit the use of amounts in the Civil Penalty Fund	-$4.0 billion
Shift authorities of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to the Securities and Exchange Commission and transfer accounting support fees to the Treasury	-$0.8 billion
Cap assessments deposited into the Financial Research Fund	-$0.3 billion
Rescind funding from Green and Resilient Retrofit program	-$0.1 billion
Subtotal, Financial Services Committee	-$5.2 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Homeland Security Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Homeland Security Committee to construct reconciliation measures to increase budget deficits by a maximum amount of $90.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would cost $79.1 billion through FY 2034.

Homeland Security Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Funding for border wall construction	$49.7 billion
Funding for U.S. Customs and Border Protection	$14.6 billion
Funding for state border security reimbursement	$12.0 billion
Funding for State Homeland Security Grant program	$2.6 billion
Funding for state and local law enforcement presidential residence protection	$0.3 billion
Subtotal, Homeland Security Committee	$79.1 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Judiciary Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Judiciary Committee to construct reconciliation measures to increase budget deficits by a maximum amount of $110.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would cost $9.0 billion through FY 2034.

Judiciary Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Impose a series of immigration fees	$8.9 billion
Regulatory and other matters	$0.1 billion
Subtotal, Judiciary Committee	$9.0 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Natural Resources Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Natural Resources Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $1.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $18.3 billion through FY 2034.

Natural Resources Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Onshore oil and gas lease sales	-$12.8 billion
Offshore oil and gas lease sales	-$6.3 billion
Coastal Plains oil and gas lease sales	-$0.9 billion
Establish project sponsor opt-in fees for environmental reviews	-$1.0 billion
Rescind funding related to water, wildlife, fisheries, and federal land	-$0.4 billion
Geothermal and coal lease sales	-$0.3 billion
Prohibit implementation of various resource management plans	-$0.2 billion
Impose protest fees and renewable energy fees on federal lands	-$0.2 billion
Other savings	-$0.1 billion
Funding for surface water storage and water conveyance enhancement	$2.5 billion
Limitation on the distribution of Outer Continental Shelf Program revenue	$1.2 billion
Funding to celebrate the United States’ 250th anniversary	$0.2 billion
Subtotal, Natural Resources Committee	-$18.3 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $50.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $12.4 billion through FY 2034.

Oversight and Government Reform Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Eliminate FERS annuity supplement	-$6.9 billion
Increase pension contributions for federal employees who choose not to be at-will employees	-$4.1 billion
Require eligibility verification for dependents in the Federal Employee Health Benefits program and make other reforms	-$1.5 billion
Subtotal, Oversight and Government Reform Committee	-$12.4 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee to construct reconciliation measures to reduce budget deficits by at least $10.0 billion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would save $36.6 billion through FY 2034.

Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Impose annual registration fee of $250 on electric vehicles and $100 on hybrid vehicles	-$64.2 billion
Rescind Inflation Reduction Act funding for transportation and federal buildings programs	-$4.0 billion
Increase tonnage duties on shippers that enter U.S. ports	-$0.3 billion
Provide funding for the U.S. Coast Guard	$19.6 billion
Funding for Air Traffic Control staffing and modernization	$12.0 billion
Funding for the Kennedy Center	$0.3 billion
Subtotal, Transportation and Infrastructure Committee	-$36.6 billion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Ways and Means Committee. The FY 2025 budget resolution instructed the House Ways and Means Committee to construct reconciliation measures to increase budget deficits by a maximum amount of $4.5 trillion through FY 2034. CBO estimates that the committee-drafted measures would cost $3.8 trillion through FY 2034.

Ways and Means Committee Provisions in the OBBBA

Provision	FY 2025–2034 Cost/Savings (-)
Individual Income Taxes
Extend Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Individual Tax Provisions
Extend reduced individual income tax rates	$2.2 trillion
Extend increased Alternative Minimum Tax exemption and phase-out thresholds	$1.3 trillion
Extend increased standard deduction and temporarily enhance the deduction through 2028	$1.3 trillion
Extend Section 199A deduction and increase maximum deduction from 20 to 23 percent of qualified business income	$819.7 billion
Extend increased Child Tax Credit and temporarily enhance the credit through 2028	$797.3 billion
Extend increase estate and gift tax exemption amounts	$211.7 billion
Extend repeal of personal exemptions	-$1.9 trillion
Limit tax benefit of itemized deductions, extend $750,000 mortgage interest deduction, extend limit on casualty loss deduction, and repeal or limit other itemized deductions	-$47.4 billion
Extend limit on excess business losses of noncorporate taxpayers	-$26.5 billion
Extend other individual income taxes	-$14.2 billion
Provide Additional Individual Income Tax Relief
Increase state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000 for taxpayers earning less than $500,000 and phase down to $10,000 thereafter	$786.8 billion
Eliminate tax on overtime pay through 2028	$124.0 billion
Provide enhanced deduction for seniors through 2028	$66.3 billion
Eliminate tax on car loan interest through 2028	$57.7 billion
Eliminate tax on tips through 2028	$39.7 billion
Provide tax credit for contributions to tax-exempt scholarship granting organizations through 2029	$20.4 billion
Create Money Accounts for Growth and Advancement (MAGA) savings accounts and MAGA accounts pilot program for newborns	$17.3 billion
Extend increased or modified employer-provided child care, paid family and medical leave, and adoption tax credits	$8.5 billion
Limit deductibility of cash charitable contributions through 2028	$6.9 billion
Extend and modify taxation of opportunity zones	$5.5 billion
Enforce remedies against unfair foreign taxes	-$116.3 billion
Reform Earned Income Tax Credit	-$15.3 billion
Other	$11.4 billion
Business Taxes
Extend Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Business Tax Provisions
Extend deduction for foreign-derived intangible income and global intangible low-taxed income	$134.4 billion
Extend business interest deduction	$39.6 billion
Extend 100 percent bonus depreciation	$36.6 billion
Extend BEAT minimum tax amount	$31.1 billion
Allow for the full expensing of research and experimental costs	$22.8 billion
Allow for the full deduction of business meal expenses in certain cases	$0.9 billion
Provide Additional Business Tax Relief
Allow 100 percent depreciation for qualified production property	$147.9 billion
Increase dollar limitations for expensing of certain depreciable business assets	$24.8 billion
Increase gross receipts threshold for small manufacturing businesses	$14.6 billion
Repeal revision to de minimis rules for third party network transactions	$8.9 billion
Impose 1 percent floor on deductions of charitable contributions made by businesses	-$16.6 billion
Other	$9.6 billion
Health Care
Require ACA Exchange verification of eligibility for health plans	-$41.3 billion
Disallow ACA premium tax credits in the case of certain coverage enrolled in during special enrollment period	-$41.0 billion
Eliminate limits on the recapture of advance payments of ACA premium tax credits	-$19.5 billion
Increase HSA contribution limit for certain individuals	$8.4 billion
Allow individuals entitled to Medicare Part A to contribute to HSAs	$4.4 billion
Other	$29.8 billion
Green Energy Tax Credits
Restrict clean electricity production and investment tax credits	-$200.6 billion
Repeal clean vehicle, previously owned clean vehicle, and qualified commercial clean vehicle tax credits	-$190.5 billion
Repeal residential clean energy tax credit	-$77.4 billion
Phase out advance manufacturing production and carbon energy property tax credits	-$44.3 billion
Repeal new energy efficient home and energy efficient home improvement tax credits	-$27.3 billion
Restrict carbon oxide sequestration and zero-emission nuclear power production tax credits	-$21.8 billion
Repeal alternative fuel vehicle refueling property and clean hydrogen production tax credits	-$10.4 billion
Extend and modify clean fuel production credit	$45.4 billion
Other Taxes
Remove taxpayer benefits for illegal immigrants	-$161.1 billion
Modify de minimis entry privilege for commercial shipments	-$39.3 billion
Increase tax rate on net investment income of certain private foundations	-$15.9 billion
Modify excise tax on investment income of certain private colleges and universities	-$6.7 billion
Ban the Internal Revenue Service from issuing unpaid Employee Retention Tax Credit claims	-$6.3 billion
Modify Low-Income Housing Tax Credit	$14.1 billion
Other	-$44.3 billion
Interactions among provisions	$45.1 billion
Subtotal, Ways and Means Committee	$3.8 trillion

Sources: CBO and author’s calculations. Numbers may not sum due to rounding.