November 15, 2019
New Center for Health and Economy Projection of the Costs and Impacts of Fully Implementing the ACA
AAF’s Center for Health and Economy has projected the impact of a full implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on the federal budget, the uninsurance rate, and other health care metrics. The key findings:
- Premium Impact: Driven by the return of the cost-sharing reduction payments, premiums on purchased plans would fall by 2 to 11 percent by the year 2029 for qualified health plans in the individual market, with Silver plans seeing the largest reduction;
- Coverage Impact: Initially, the number of uninsured would decrease by roughly 4 million people, with the decrease coming primarily because of the Medicaid expansion but also because of lower premiums, yet by 2029 the decrease in the number of uninsured would be around 3 million relative to the baseline; and
- Budget Impact: A fully implemented ACA is expected to increase federal spending by $170 billion between 2020 and 2029, with a net budgetary impact of $136 billion.