(Not So) Fun Fact: Since the conflict with Iran began, U.S. consumers and businesses have paid an additional $122 billion due to higher gas and diesel prices; this amounts to more than $930 per household.

What Actually Happened With the U.S.-China Summit?

What Happened: Last week, President Trump met with Chinese leader Xi at the White House to discuss the geopolitical and economic relationship between the United States and China, the world’s largest economies. Atop the docket was, of course, the bilateral trade relationship and the trade war that had been put on hold until November of this year. Negotiators agreed to extend the truce until January 10, a two-month extension that provides no clarity on whether U.S. trade actions – such as the Section 301 tariffs targeting China’s shipbuilding dominance or the expiration of Section 301 tariff exclusions for certain imports from China – will remain paused. It appears both sides also agreed to kick the can down the road on tariffs imposed since the trade war began. According to a White House fact sheet, the U.S.-China Board of Trade will work to reduce tariffs on $30 billion of each nation’s imports, China will import 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in 2027 and in 2028, the two countries will collaborate on U.S. critical mineral shortages, and the U.S.-China Board of Investment will continue to discuss potential investment opportunities. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released its own fact sheet highlighting the summit’s takeaways, but notably, a commitment to purchase U.S. coal is nowhere to be found. The White House also released further details regarding the Board of Trade’s “30-for-30” framework to reduce tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S.-China bilateral trade as well as information on how this board will work (all in just 1.5 pages and a handful of bullet points). Both countries proposed lists of imports that may – at an unspecified date – receive tariff reductions, with the U.S. list including kitchenware, linens, appliances, various Christmas decorations, sports equipment, and toys. The Chinese list of imports from the United States includes meats, vegetables, fruits, wood, and hundreds of other agricultural products.

Why It Matters: The summit can best be summarized in one word: underwhelming. This is not necessarily a surprise as the Shipment noted last week that administration officials and analysts appeared to be managing expectations. It is shocking, however, that the fact sheets from the summit include no mention of the previously touted Chinese purchase commitments of U.S. soybeans, Boeing planes, and other agricultural products (read more here). These commitments have not been fulfilled, which raises the question of why U.S. officials should expect the Chinese government to make meaningful purchases of U.S. coal. Additionally, one of the Trump Administration’s stated major concerns – the supply of critical minerals to U.S. businesses – is barely addressed in its fact sheet, with just one lackluster bullet point and zero deliverables. The Chinese fact sheet does not even mention the words “rare earths” or “critical minerals.” The idea of a U.S.-China Board of Investment, first proposed in May, was also sidelined in this summit, lacking any details on how it would function, what investments it might help to bring about, or what its role in the U.S.-China economic relationship would be going forward. This news (or lack thereof) also meant there is no confirmation on whether Chinese auto companies will build manufacturing facilities on U.S. soil, an idea previously promoted by President Trump. In fact, the biggest news from the summit was the U.S.-China Board of Trade. This group – comprising U.S. and Chinese government officials – will take charge of the “30-for-30” framework meant to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports as well as $30 billion worth of Chinese imports. The concept of reducing trade barriers, lowering tariffs, and promoting dialogue rather than pursuing economic warfare represents progress for the Trump Administration. It is especially important to note that the Board of Trade has already published a list of 77 U.S. import categories and more than 1,600 Chinese import categories for potential tariff reductions. The issue, however, is the White House has not provided a clear timeline for when U.S. consumers and businesses should expect these import tax cuts. Equally unclear is how far the administration will lower tariffs on Chinese goods. If history is any indication, tariff rates are likely to remain well above historic levels even if this “30-for-30” deal succeeds, as has been the case for each of President Trump’s trade deals thus far. In the event tariffs are eliminated on roughly $30 billion worth of U.S. imports from China, it would be a slap in the face for U.S. allies and other close trade partners that have committed, announced, and followed through on investments or trade reforms that benefit the United States while receiving minimal tariff relief.

A closer look at the proposed lists of imports adds a few other wrinkles to the tangible results of the U.S.-China summit. First, it is unclear if tariff reductions on $60 billion worth of U.S.-China trade will actually be achieved. According to the Shipment’s analysis, the total value of listed imports from China was $23.2 billion in 2025; data for January–July of 2026 shows a 17-percent decline for these imports compared to the same period last year. In 2024, imports from China totaled $32.3 billion and the average from 2016–2025 was $29.3 billion, unadjusted for inflation. The total value of China’s listed imports from the United States was between $14.6–$20 billion in 2025 and $24.3–$30.3 billion in 2024 while the average from 2016–2025 was $21.8–$27.2 billion. If nothing else, this shows that the “30-for-30” framework is more of a catchy slogan that serves as a goal rather than a hard import value target. These data also show that – historically speaking – it is likely that more U.S. imports from China will receive tariff reductions than Chinese imports from the United States. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the listed imports amount to approximately 7.7 percent of all U.S. imports from China and 10–14 percent of all Chinese imports from the United States (using 2025 data). So, while tariff reductions are an important step, only a small fraction of total bilateral trade will be impacted.

Looking Ahead: While there were limited takeaways from the U.S.-China summit, it did buy time for more concrete results to come from upcoming meetings in November and December. Negotiators are expected to maintain a dialogue at these summits and it is also expected that President Trump will speak with leader Xi once again. Onlookers to U.S.-China relations should remain attentive and hopeful for future announcements before the newly established January 10 trade truce deadline arrives. It is worth once again highlighting the fact that many of the U.S. imports that may receive tariff reductions include Christmas decorations, toys, sports equipment, and various other household goods. These items very easily fit into the “holiday gift” category and could mean the Trump Administration is attempting to quickly lower costs for holiday shoppers this year. If this is the objective, it would require the administration to announce tariff reductions soon. Ideally, tariffs would be slashed no later than the mid-November APEC summit in China, otherwise many importers will have already paid the tariff costs. Even then, many goods will already be stockpiled in the lead up to Black Friday, and tariff reductions take time to work their way through the economy. While the future is unclear surrounding the U.S.-China economic relationship, at least the Atlanta Zoo will be leased two giant pandas from China.

In Other News

Pushing Canada Away, Eh?: On September 29, the Trump Administration’s import bans on certain motorcycles, alcohol, and dairy products from Canada officially went into effect. The current import bans cover approximately $967 million worth of imports and roughly 87 percent of impacted products fall under the alcoholic beverages import ban. This recent escalation comes after the administration imposed 50-percent Section 338 tariffs on close to $20 billion worth of imports on August 22. The new import bans utilize the same Section 338 authority, which allows the president to wholly restrict trade if a country maintains or escalates its discriminatory practices against U.S. goods. The move to outright ban nearly $1 billion in imports due to a trade dispute marks not only the first use of this authority by the Trump Administration, but is wholly unprecedented (read more here). In response to the continued U.S.-Canada trade war which began in early 2025, Canada has chosen to look beyond the United States for trade partners. Canada and the European Union are expected to announce a new partnership in late October which will include stockpiling critical minerals, strengthening joint supply chains, and enhancing both economic and strategic cooperation. President Trump, by contrast, stated this week that Canada “takes advantage” of the United States, feels “entitled” to a deal, and is one of the “worst countries” to negotiate with.