Today the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System – begins a two-day meeting. There are legitimate concerns on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate for full employment and price stability. The 4th quarter data on gross domestic product showed that growth slowed to 0.7 percent, which was probably depressed by the government shutdown. Absent that event, growth would likely have been closer to 2.0 percent, still well down from 4.4 percent in the 3rd quarter. In February the Labor Department reported that employment fell by 92,000 but the unemployment rate stayed low at 4.4 percent. Still, outside of health jobs, employers have been shedding workers for a year. The bottom line? The full employment mandate is at risk.

The same can be said for price stability. The personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s preferred measure – showed year-over-year core inflation of 3.1 percent in January, up from 3.0 percent in December and hot monthly inflation (3.7 percent in January and 4.5 percent in December). The Fed is far from hitting its 2.0 percent inflation target.

All of that data reflects conditions prior to the U.S.-Israel bombardment of Iran. Since then, global oil prices have risen to nearly $100 a barrel, a supply shock that will simultaneously put upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on growth and employment. That sounds bad. What should the Fed do?

The perhaps surprising answer is that the Fed should ignore the oil price supply shock and do what it would have done anyway. Why? The supply shock is transitory and when it unwinds, it puts offsetting downward pressure on prices and upward momentum on growth and employment. This is what is meant by looking past the oil shock.

So, if you thought inflation was the threat and wanted the FOMC to raise rates, you still should. If you thought employment losses were the biggest threat and wanted to cut rates, then stick to your guns. But if you thought the FOMC should simply keep rates unchanged, then you should continue to do so.

Note that the latter of these is the most likely outcome. Any big news out of the meeting will be from something Chair Powell says, and not the actual (in)actions of the FOMC.