The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a new set of long-term budget projections, aka the trail of tears. It is telling, however, that the projections were released simply as a spreadsheet with no accompanying writeup of the outlook. It seems safe to assume that the author-to-be was so shocked at the numbers that he or she simply passed away. Rather than risk further death-by-dismal-data, the CBO simply put out the numbers.

Fortunately, AAF’s Jordan Haring is made of tougher stuff and provides a clear and concise discussion here. The key facts are summarized in two charts reproduced (that is, stolen) from her work. The first key fact is that spending is higher than revenue for as far as the budgetary eye can see. Key fact number two is that spending is growing faster than revenue. That means that one cannot close the budget gap simply by raising taxes. Yes, the deficit will be smaller at first, but unless the growth rate of spending is reduced, the gap will simply reappear.

The only sustainable budgetary success will come from reducing the growth rate of spending. There is no substitute.

The third key fact is that the long-term outlook is getting worse. Last year, the debt was projected to rise to as high as 156 percent of gross domestic product. Now it is projected to reach 172 percent. And there is no evidence that this is on policymakers’ radar screen. They are variously preoccupied with not paying the Transportation Security Agency, taking out random dictators, and planning auto races through downtown DC. And that is on their good days.

The final key fact is that this long-term outlook has nothing to do with the long term. In the past, the rating agencies downgraded Treasuries because of political gridlock and the difficulty of managing finances efficiently. That may still be true, but the recent Moody’s downgrade was because the United States has too much debt and too much of its revenue is consumed by paying interest on the debt. (In fact, by 2048, interest on the debt is projected to surpass Social Security as the largest category of federal spending.) That means that right now markets are concerned about the debt. And right now they respond to events such as the Liberation Day tariffs by fleeing from the United States and the dollar.

It is simply time to deal with the future of debt. Right now.