Today an estimated 14 million Americans need long-term care, but that figure is projected to rise by over 70 percent in the next decade, to 24 million — driving up the already-high costs of such care. In new research, AAF’s Director of Human Welfare Policy Tara O’Neill Hayes and Sara Kurtovic examine the challenges around long-term care in the United States and estimates how much providing it will cost in the coming years.

Their central points:

• By 2030, 24 million Americans will need long-term care, nearly double the current need, but the supply of caregivers is shrinking rapidly relative to the demand;
• The amount and complexity of care needed per person will also increase, as a result of the increasing number of chronic conditions per person; and
• An estimated $849 billion worth of long-term care was provided in 2018, and this study estimates that in 2030, long-term care costs will more than double and may reach as high as $2.5 trillion.

Read the research.