In their 2026 report, the Social Security Trustees estimate the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will exhaust its reserves by the end of calendar year 2032. In new research, Director of Fiscal Policy Jordan Haring discusses the implications of the retirement fund becoming insolvent.

Key points:

• Upon OASI’s insolvency, all beneficiaries regardless of age, income, or need will see their benefits slashed by 22 percent.
• The magnitude of the 22 percent across-the-board benefit cut will vary across different types of retirees and for retirees across the income spectrum: a newly retired single, middle-income retiree would see an annual benefit cut of $8,100, a single-income, middle-income couple would see a $12,200 reduction, and a dual-income, middle-income couple would see their benefits slashed by $16,200.
• Lawmakers’ pledge to “not touch” Social Security is not a promise to protect benefits, but an implicit endorsement of a 22 percent across-the-board benefit cut in just six years.

Read the analysis.