On April 2, the Trump Administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” – import duties that are designed to match the tariff and non-tariff barriers of other countries – are set to go into effect. In new research, Trade Policy Analyst Jacob Jensen and Killian Hughes estimate the costs of two potential approaches the administration could take, a country-by-country rate or separate rates on a product-by-product level, to range between $26–$200 billion.

They conclude:

The specific method the Trump Administration will use to implement and enforce reciprocal tariffs is unclear, as is whether the tariffs will prove permanent. No matter which scenario is used to calculate these tariffs or whether non-tariff barriers are heavily factored in, costs will increase for U.S. consumers and businesses, at least in the short term. If this policy results in other countries lowering trade barriers and opening markets for U.S. firms, that may offer certain positive outcomes. If, however, there are no negotiations, there will be negative economic consequences. Such cost estimates of reciprocal tariffs range from $26.3 billion to more than $200 billion if non-tariff barriers are factored in.

Read the analysis.