Weekly Checkup

The State of the Union: Health Care Edition

President Trump’s State of the Union address was notable not for any surprises but for, at least relatively speaking, its discipline. In a speech that covered a wide range of topics, the health care portion stood out because it was so compact – a brief, tightly-scripted segment. SOTU felt more like brand reinforcement and validation than legislative strategy, recapping prior talking points rather than laying out a roadmap for how Congress should tackle health care cost growth, coverage instability, or market inefficiency.

The health care portion closely tracked the administration’s and Congress’ recent policy focuses. The president went after the Affordable Care Act as a system that enriched insurers, repeated his call to “stop all payments to big insurance companies” and redirect funds to individuals, and again framed price transparency as a central reform tool. He addressed prescription drugs as well, touting most-favored-nation (MFN) agreements, promoting TrumpRx.gov, and urging Congress to codify MFN into law.

Unfortunately, the policies that were promoted are not the solutions that Congress should seek. Codifying MFN may sound like decisive action on drug prices, but in practice it makes a bad policy permanent by hard-wiring U.S. pricing to foreign reference points. That is not market reform; it is administrative price benchmarking. And while it can produce headline-friendly claims, it undermines the harder work of legislating reforms accelerating biosimilar and generic competition, reducing anti-competitive contracting and rebate distortions, increasing net-price transparency where feasible, and ensuring benefit design protects patients from high cost-sharing.

The same critique applies to the president’s “give the money directly to the people” request. Reallocating federal support from insurers to consumers may change who receives the dollars, but it does not automatically change the cost of care itself. Shifting the payment channel is not the same thing as lowering underlying premiums, provider prices, or out-of-pocket exposure. In other words, rhetoric is strongest where it identifies public frustration, but much weaker where it claims to solve the mechanics of affordability.

Even taken together, these ideas still leave the core affordability question unanswered. Redirecting federal health dollars from insurers to individuals may change the payment pathway, but it does not by itself reduce the underlying cost of hospital care, physician services, or branded medicines. Transparency can help at the margin – especially in shoppable services – but transparency without stronger competition, benefit-design reform, and real enforcement often produces better information, but not lower prices. And codifying MFN remains a politically potent but substantively murky centerpiece: Key deal terms are still largely confidential, the legal mechanism for scaling the arrangements is unclear, and it is difficult to evaluate what exactly Congress would be codifying.

The health care segment of the State of the Union may have been effective politics, but it presented incomplete policy pathways. The president delivered a consistent message, and consistency matters. But if Congress is truly going to address the issues facing health care, it will need more than MFN slogans, transparency branding, and rerouting a subsidy. It will need reforms that increase competition, improve benefit design, and reduce costs at the point of care without narrowing access.

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