Executive Summary

• On September 24, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi met at the White House to discuss bilateral trade and other points of contention put on hold since the trade war truce established last year.
• Trump and Xi agreed to extend the truce – which had been set to expire in November – until January 10, or for just two additional months; the administration had previously floated a 3-to-6-month extension.
• The most important achievement of the summit was the “30-for-30” framework administered by the U.S.-China Board of Trade as it proposes tariff reductions on $30 billion worth of each country’s imports; this research finds that tariff reductions are unlikely to reach the 30-for-30 target and will not be fully reciprocal, with import data indicating a larger impact on U.S. imports from China than vice versa.

Introduction

On September 24, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi met at the White House to discuss bilateral trade and other points of contention put on hold since the trade war truce established last year. Both leaders agreed to extend this truce – which had been set to expire in November – until January 10, or for just two additional months. The administration had previously floated a 3-to-6-month extension; this disappointing outcome may serve as an appropriate symbol of the underwhelming results of this most recent U.S.-China summit.

The most important achievement to come from the September summit was the 30-for-30 framework administered by the U.S.-China Board of Trade. This framework proposes tariff reductions on $30 billion worth of each country’s imports, including toys, appliances, and furniture from China and agricultural products from the United States. This research finds that tariff reductions are unlikely to reach the 30-for-30 target, with historic import data indicating these reductions will likely impact more U.S. imports from China than vice versa. Furthermore, this research finds that the United States relies far more heavily on China for its listed products than China does on its list of U.S. goods.

Lead Up to the September Summit

The September summit followed up on the May meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi as well as the October 2025 agreement that established the current trade truce. These discussions were intended to address the various disagreements driving the escalating trade war that began in October 2025. During these past meetings, China committed to purchasing Boeing planes, soybeans, and other U.S. agricultural products. China also agreed to a one-year pause on rare-earth export controls and to crack down on the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals. The United States agreed to reduce the fentanyl-related tariff on China (a tariff authority struck down by the Supreme Court) and abandon the threatened 100-percent tariff on Chinese goods, as well as postponed the Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipbuilding. Both sides also agreed to delay the imposition of port fees on one another and announced the establishment of U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to help manage the bilateral economic relationship. These meetings extended a trade war ceasefire that was set to expire in November and laid the groundwork for the recent summit at the White House.

What Were the Results

The September summit marked Chinese leader Xi’s first U.S. visit since 2023 and his first official reception since 2015. The day before President Trump hosted Xi, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the trade truce had been extended until January 10. This two-month extension was below expectations of a 3-to-6-month extension but still marked one of the few takeaways from recent negotiations. Others include China committing to purchase 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in both 2027 and 2028, the two countries collaborating on U.S. critical mineral shortages, and the U.S.-China Board of Investment continuing to discuss potential investment opportunities. It is worth noting, however, that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs fact sheet fails to mention any commitment to purchase coal and the language regarding the Board of Investment and critical minerals remains vague. Perhaps the most important result of the summit was further clarification on the U.S.-China Board of Trade, including a fact sheet outlining the board’s functions. The Board of Trade is meant to reduce tariffs on $30 billion of each nation’s imports, an objective known as the 30-for-30 framework. Within the current framework, both countries proposed lists of imports that may – at an unspecified date – receive tariff reductions.

The Board of Trade

The U.S.-China Board of Trade released a 1.5 page document outlining its working procedures. Its stated mission is to “optimize bilateral trade” between the United States and China which includes discussions to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of each nation’s imports (the 30-for-30 framework). The leadership of the board (called principals) include Treasury Secretary Bessent, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Greer, and He Lifeng, the vice premier of the State Council in China. The deputies to each principal will lead discussions and are in charge of handling the lists of imports that will be considered for tariff reductions. Deputies are also given the power to establish working groups on specific areas of trade. In terms of meeting schedules, the principals will meet whenever necessary to consider proposals from the deputies who will meet no less than every quarter.

The Board of Trade published a list of 77 U.S. import categories and more than 1,600 Chinese import categories for potential tariff reductions in the 30-for-30 framework. The U.S. list includes kitchenware, linens, appliances, various Christmas decorations, sports equipment, and toys. The Chinese list of imports from the United States includes meats, vegetables, fruits, wood, and hundreds of other agricultural products. The White House has not provided a timeline for when U.S. consumers and businesses should expect these import tax cuts. Equally unclear is how far the administration will lower tariffs on Chinese goods. If history is any indication, tariff rates are likely to remain well above historic levels even if this 30-for-30 deal succeeds, as has been the case for each of President Trump’s trade deals thus far.

What’s in the 30-for-30 Framework for Future U.S. Tariff Reductions?

Figure 1 displays which U.S. import categories at the HTS-2 level are most impacted by the current list of imported goods from China slated to receive U.S. tariff reductions. HTS-2 refers to 2-digit codes or chapters in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS), which represent broad categories of goods (e.g. cereals [chapter 10]). HTS-4 refers to 4-digit codes in the HTSUS, denoting narrower goods categories (e.g. rice [1006]). As shown in Figure 1, the most impacted category includes toys, games, and sports equipment as it represents nearly half of the U.S. list in the 30-for-30 framework. Put another way, imported toys, games, and sports equipment from China are most likely to receive lower U.S. tariff rates in the future. Figure 1 is aggregated from 2016–2025 to account for any single-year fluctuations in trade.

Figure 1: Customs Value and Share of Listed U.S. Imports from China at the HTS-2 Level in the 30-for-30 Framework

HTS-2 Level	Description	Customs Value of U.S. Imports ($ Billions), 2016–2025	Percent of Listed Imports
95	Toys, games, and sports equipment	$137.2	47%
85	Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof	$61.6	21%
94	Furniture, bedding, mattresses, cushions, and lighting fittings	$49.3	17%
39	Plastics and articles thereof	$27.5	9%
96	Miscellaneous manufactured articles	$7.0	2%
36	Explosives, pyrotechnic products, and matches	$3.3	1%
66	Umbrellas, walking sticks, and parts thereof	$3.2	1%
63	Made-up textile articles, needlecraft sets, worn clothing, and rags	$2.1	1%
84	Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, and mechanical appliances	$1.9	1%
67	Prepared feathers, artificial flowers, and articles of human hair	$0.2	0%

Source: The United States International Trade Commission, The White House

Other impacted U.S. categories include electrical machinery, furniture, and plastics.

Figure 2 further breaks down impacted U.S. imports from China at the HTS-8 level. This figure shows each import that makes up 1 percent or more of the total listed U.S. imports in the 30-for-30 tariff reduction deal. Once again, the top category is toys with the next few including mainly household appliances and kitchenware.

Figure 2: Customs Value and Share of Listed U.S. Imports From China at the HTS-8 Level in the 30-for-30 Framework

HTS-8 Level	Description	Customs Value of U.S. Imports ($ Billions), 2016–2025	Percent of Listed Imports
95030000	Toys, including riding toys, puzzles, reduced scale models	$124.9	43%
39241040	Tableware and kitchenware articles	$24.2	8%
94017900	Seats, not upholstered	$18.7	6%
85167900	Electrothermic appliances, of a kind used for domestic purposes	$16.4	6%
85165000	Microwave ovens of a kind used for domestic purposes	$12.3	4%
85098050	Electromechanical domestic appliances, with self-contained electric motor	$11.4	4%
94017100	Seats, upholstered	$8.6	3%
85094000	Electromechanical food grinders, processors, mixers, fruit or vegetable juice extractors, with self-contained electric motor, for domestic uses	$7.7	3%
94018060	Seats, other than wood, or with metal frame or of rubber or plastics	$7.6	3%
96170010	Vacuum flasks and vessels, complete with cases	$6.7	2%
85167100	Electrothermic coffee or tea makers, for domestic purposes	$6.3	2%
94049020	Pillows, cushions and similar furnishings, other than of cotton	$6.1	2%
94037080	Furniture of plastics	$4.3	1%
36041090	Fireworks	$3.3	1%
66011000	Garden or similar umbrellas	$3.2	1%
39241020	Plates, cups, saucers, soup bowls, cereal bowls, sugar bowls, creamers, gravy boats, serving dishes and platters, of plastics	$2.8	1%
85131020	Flashlights	$2.7	1%
95049090	Articles for arcade, table or parlor games; automatic bowling alley equipment	$2.5	1%
95043000	Coin- or token-operated games for arcade, table or parlor	$2.0	1%
84231000	Personal weighing machines, including baby scales; household scales	$1.9	1%
95044000	Playing cards	$1.7	1%
94018040	Seats, of rubber or plastics	$1.5	1%

Source: The United States International Trade Commission, The White House

Comparing the United States and China in the 30-for-30 Framework

This research also examined the list of Chinese imports from the United States to see whether the 30-for-30 framework lives up to its name. Based on the data, it looks as though both countries may get close but not quite reduce tariffs on a combined $60 billion worth of imports given the current import lists under consideration. The total value of listed U.S. imports from China was $23.2 billion in 2025. In 2024, listed imports from China totaled $32.3 billion and the average from 2016–2025 was $29.3 billion, unadjusted for inflation. By comparison, the total value of China’s listed imports from the United States was between $14.6–$20 billion in 2025 and $24.3–$30.3 billion in 2024 while the average from 2016–2025 was $21.8–$27.2 billion. Figure 3 shows the import values of each country’s proposed 30-for-30 import lists from 2016 to 2025. It also puts the 30-for-30 import lists as a percentage of total U.S. imports from China and total Chinese imports from the United States for perspective. For example, in 2025 the proposed 30-for-30 U.S. list of imports from China amounted to 8 percent of total U.S. imports from China that year.

As historic import data shows, the 30-for-30 framework appears to be more of a catchy slogan that serves as a goal rather than a set target. It is unlikely that either country reduces tariffs on precisely $30 billion in imports unless they expand the lists further. Also worth noting is that current data for January–July of 2026 shows a 17-percent decline in U.S. imports of listed Chinese goods compared to the same period last year. Imports of designated goods may rebound once a 30-for-30 tariff reduction deal is achieved, but it will take time from current levels.

Figure 3: Import Values of Listed Products in the 30-for-30 Framework

Date	U.S. Imports from China ($ Billions)	Percent of Total Imports from China	Chinese Imports from the United States ($ Billions)	Percent of Total Imports from the United States
2016	$26.4	6%	$15.1-$18.7	11%-14%
2017	$27.1	5%	$18.1-$22.9	12%-15%
2018	$27.9	5%	$17.8-$23.2	11%-15%
2019	$28.4	6%	$14.8-$19.9	12%-16%
2020	$27.0	6%	$20.6-$25.7	15%-19%
2021	$34.5	7%	$33.8-$40.1	19%-22%
2022	$37.4	7%	$33.0-$39.5	18%-22%
2023	$29.2	7%	$26.0-$31.8	16%-19%
2024	$32.3	7%	$24.3-$30.3	15%-18%
2025	$23.2	8%	$14.6-$20.0	10%-14%
2016-2025 Average	$29.3	6%	$21.8-$27.2	14%-18%

Source: The White House, The United States International Trade Commission, The United Nations Comtrade Database

These data also show that more U.S. imports from China will receive tariff reductions than Chinese imports from the United States. For instance, 2025 import data show that the United States would reduce tariffs on between $3.2–$8.6 billion more of imports compared to China. Widening the view to the last decade, it is still likely that there are more U.S. tariff reductions than Chinese tariff reductions in a 30-for-30 deal. Broadly speaking, this is more beneficial for U.S. consumers and businesses who will pay lower import taxes for goods. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the listed imports amount to approximately 7.7 percent of all U.S. imports from China and 10–14 percent of all Chinese imports from the United States (using 2025 data). So, while tariff reductions are an important step in a trade truce, only a small fraction of total bilateral trade will be impacted.

The differences between the import lists proposed by China and the United States also include asymmetries in how reliant each country is on the other for the listed products. As shown in Figure 4, the United States heavily relies on China as the main import source for the various products in the 30-for-30 framework. This reliance has gradually decreased over the past 10 years but in 2025 China still accounted for 65 percent of U.S. imports of the listed goods. This is down from a high of roughly 82 percent in 2016. By comparison, China relies on the United States for its listed imports far less. In 2025, the United States accounted for just 6–7 percent of Chinese imports of listed goods. Historically speaking, China has not imported more than 14 percent of the 30-for-30 listed goods from the United States.

Figure 4: Where the United States Imports the 30-for-30 Listed Products

Source: The White House, The United States International Trade Commission, The United Nations Comtrade Database