Executive Summary On March 15, 2020, the Federal Reserve embarked on a large-scale program employing emergency powers in order to stabilize a tumultuous economy under pressure from the novel coronavirus COVID-19. Chief among these emergency actions are cutting interest rates…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses lessons from the 2009 stimulus package, Joe Biden’s tax hikes and green economy proposals, and the continued impact of COVID-19 on the economy in this episode of the AAF Exchange.

  

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses growing concerns about a second wave of coronavirus infections, the latest on business closings and cutbacks, and the possibility of another aid package in this episode of the AAF Exchange.

  

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the first presidential debate, the views of President Trump and Vice President Biden on health care coverage, and continuing negotiation over federal aid amid the COVID-19 pandemic in this episode of the AAF Exchange.

  

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses how the vacancy left by Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsberg may affect Congress's work, the impact of COVID-19 on insurance coverage, and expectations for a COVID-19 vaccine in this episode of the AAF Exchange.

  

Is another aid package dead? Where do we go from here? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest in coronavirus and economic news.

  

Executive Summary President Trump’s executive order signed on August 8 created a Lost Wages Assistance (LWA) program that provided states that applied with $300 a week of additional unemployment compensation for an expected duration of 6 weeks. As with many…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin considers the likelihood that federal policymakers will reach an agreement on another COVID-19 aid package and discusses the impact of monetary and fiscal policy responses.

What's in the GOP’s "skinny" COVID-19 relief package? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin walks us through the package as well as AAF's latest research on the federal unemployment supplement and the August jobs report.

  

*The views expressed here are my own and do not represent the position of the American Action Forum. I am indebted to my colleague Gordon Gray for many valuable conversations. Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and Members of the Committee,…

Executive Summary There is concern that, without continued federal supplement to state unemployment insurance benefits, unemployed individuals and families will have an inadequate standard of living. This study uses poverty thresholds as the standard of adequacy and examines the implications…

New reports are coming out about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin walks us through these results as well as issues concerning school closings and surprise medical bills.

  

From the Republican Convention to the potential for a double-dip recession, AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest in economic and policy news. 

  

From the status of unemployment benefits to the likely impact of a payroll tax deferral, AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin walks us through the latest economic news—including Russia’s claim to have a COVID-19 vaccine.

  

It's been almost a week since the federal unemployment supplement expired. Where are we with the negotiations? What are the main sticking points? Will Congress get a deal? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses these concerns and more in this episode of the AAF Exchange.

  

Introduction The following tracker uses the most recent data from the Small Business Administration (SBA) to chart the allocation of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funds. Context In the face of the economic and social disruption caused by the coronavirus, Congress…

This week, the biggest issue in Washington is the "what" and "when" of the next coronavirus aid package. In this episode of The AAF Exchange, President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the legislative package’s major components.

  

Joint Economic Committee *The views expressed here are my own and do not represent the position of the American Action Forum. I am indebted to my colleague Gordon Gray for many valuable conversations. Chairman Lee, Vice Chairman Beyer, and Members…

Executive Summary Senate Republicans have set out their position for the next round of COVID-19 relief legislation in the $1 trillion Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection, and Schools (HEALS) Act. The HEALS Act, like the House Democrats’ HEROES Act but…

The Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection, and Schools (HEALS) Act includes a second round of direct payments to individuals.

As Congress lumbers its way toward divining the mix of your money to sprinkle across a stricken economy, this week has predictably given way to the usual posturing, speculation, and contretemps that are the modern substitute for legislating.

Executive Summary Senate Republicans have set out their position for the next round of COVID-19 relief legislation in the $1 trillion Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection, and Schools (HEALS) Act. The HEALS Act would provide $3.3 billion in housing assistance,…

Executive Summary The Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection, and Schools (HEALS) Act contains several education provisions that expand upon those in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Under HEALS, states would receive an additional $70 billion to…

Executive Summary Senate Republicans have issued proposed legislation to provide COVID-19 relief, the Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection, and Schools (HEALS) Act, which includes provisions to fund research and development for rare earth element extraction. There is little rare earth…

Executive Summary In the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2020 bank stress testing exercise, all participating banks were deemed to have sufficient capital to weather a crisis, even when judged against a separate, more extreme coronavirus sensitivity analysis. Despite this positive result,…

What has the U.S. done right in response to COVID-19? Where could the U.S. have improved its response? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses this and the negotiations over the next legislative package in this episode of The AAF Exchange.

  

Where do negotiations for unemployment supplements stand, and what will Congress include in its next response package to COVID-19? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses these questions in this episode of The AAF Exchange.

  

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the economic impact of the latest surge of COVID-19, and what government leaders can do to help manage this new stage of the crisis.

  

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the challenges in getting CARES Act funds out to businesses and the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Bloomberg Radio.

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the June jobs report and what the federal government should do to manage the new stage of the coronavirus pandemic.

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the June jobs report and the possible extension of the federal unemployment benefit.

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the June jobs report and its implications for the economic recovery on NPR’s All Things Considered.

How can policymakers help safely reopen the economy? Should the tax filing deadline be pushed back again? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin shares his thoughts as states begin to reopen.

  

Eakinomics: Banks and the Evolution of the Crisis There is a reflex among policymakers to treat the current pandemic recession as a repeat of the 2007-08 downturn, including referring to the current woes as a financial crisis. But, in fact, the…

The news around COVID-19 this week has been mixed. AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin shares his thoughts on recent economic news as well as what one should look out for as states begin to reopen.

  

Eakinomics: To File or Not To File The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has not ruled out the possibility of pushing the current tax filing deadline from July 15 to September 15. (The IRS extended the normal April 15 deadline to…

Eakinomics: Safely Opening the Economy It is increasingly apparent that the speed and scale of economic recovery will be proportional to the speed and scale of modifying workplaces to operate safely in the presence of the virus. Without that, workers will…

Eakinomics: A Real-Time Portrait of the COVID-19 Recession If you are going to read one 85-page empirical research paper on the mechanics of the current recession, it should be “How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker…

Amid the surge in COVID-19 cases in some states, AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin considers the impact on states' ability to re-open their economies and on consumers' willingness to re-engage.

  

Eakinomics: No U-turns on Pandemic Tax Policy The COVID-19 pandemic generated an economy-wide cash-flow crisis and recession. It has put a premium on Congress finding ways to rapidly infuse cash into businesses so they can keep their doors open and employees’…

Eakinomics: Correlation and the Disproportionate Impact of COVID-19 COVID-19 has a disproportionately large impact on the health and economic well-being of minority populations. (See my testimony before the House Committee on Ways and Means.) This stylized fact has been apparent for a while…

United States House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means *The views expressed here are my own and not those of the American Action Forum. I thank Gordon Gray, Tara O’Neill Hayes, and Christopher Holt for their valuable contributions. Chairman…

Eakinomics: The State-Local Government Employment Picture There has been a steady drumbeat of dire warnings from the left regarding the outlook for employment in the state-local government sector. In the absence of a large infusion of funds from the federal taxpayer,…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses his recent testimonies before Congress, how to target aid to those most in need, additional economic indicators to watch for, and the big picture concerning the federal budget.

  

AAF Labor Market Policy Data Analyst Isabel Soto discusses federal and state labor market interventions in response to COVID-19, including the unemployment insurance supplement in the CARES Act and its implications for our economic recovery.

  

United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs *The views expressed here are my own and not those of the American Action Forum. I thank Thomas Wade for his insight and assistance. Chairman Crapo, Ranking Member Brown, and…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the surging stock market, the role of consumer confidence in our economic recovery, and Title 4 of the CARES Act.

  

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the phase four package and how the federal response conversation has recently shifted in the latest episode.

  

What's in the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act, and how could it impact the economic recovery? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin explains in the latest episode.

  

With unemployment at an all time high, will we see worse numbers in Quarter 2? AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the path toward economic recovery amid the COVID-19 crisis.

  

Executive Summary The energy sector deemed critical infrastructure has continued to operate but with reduced demand for petroleum products facilities have reduced production capacity. Myriad factors—including staffing needs, refining proportions, and transportation bottlenecks—could lead to a shortage of petroleum products…

From re-opening the economy to the Defense Protection Act, AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest developments in the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis.

  

Executive Summary:   The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act increased the unemployment benefit amount so much that the maximum unemployment benefit is greater than the median wage in the majority of states.    While the expanded unemployment benefit is…

Oil prices, business loans, and health insurance — AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest developments in the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis.

  

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The spring of a presidential election year traditionally marks the cut-off point after which rules published in the Federal Register are vulnerable to repeal from a new administration and Congress under the Congressional Review Act. Since the Congressional…

The suspension is limited in scope, but it is based on faulty reasoning that neglects immigrants’ contributions to economic growth, and its expansion could significantly harm the U.S. economic recovery.

AAF’s Director of Financial Services Policy Thomas Wade discusses four important actions taken by the Federal Reserve to combat the economic impacts of COVID-19.

 

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest developments in the federal government's response to the COVID-19 crisis as well as the topic of “reopening” the economy.

  

On April 16th, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a cost estimate for the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest developments in the federal government's response to the COVID-19 crisis and looks ahead to what could come next.

  

Eakinomics: The Coronavirus Changes Everything The coronavirus pandemic changes everything. Obviously. Having said that, I still get surprised by some of its implications. Take, for example, AAF's Dan Goldbeck’s latest paper on the coronavirus and the Congressional Review Act (CRA). Recall that the…

AAF’s Director of Immigration and Trade Policy Jackie Varas discusses three coronavirus-related trade myths.

Executive Summary In the wake of the economic disruption caused by coronavirus many businesses are looking to make insurance claims despite their policies specifically excluding losses due to pandemics. The president and senior lawmakers have suggested that insurers should pay…

Executive Summary In addition to significantly harming the U.S. economy, COVID-19 threatens to shrink the global economy. In response, nations around the world have instituted similar measures to what the United States has done, such as cash transfers, loan guarantees,…

AAF’s Director of Regulatory Policy Dan Bosch discusses three significant regulatory changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Eakinomics: COVID-19 and Policy Development One can view life as an unfolding series of benefit-costs tests – especially if you are a soulless economist! Is the benefit of a classic, 2-pound, resealable bag of Twizzlers strawberry twists larger than the cost…

Executive Summary On March 23 and April 9, the Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded on the already decisive deployment of tools from its monetary policy arsenal in seeking to mitigate the economic impacts of the coronavirus. In addition to expanding the…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses how—and when—the CARES Act will deliver economic aid.

  

Eakinomics: Policy Design and CARES The U.S. economy is suffering from massive, cascading cash-flow crunches. With the arrival of the virus, large swaths of the economy – airlines, hotels, entertainment, restaurants, and so forth – overnight lost their customers and revenue.…

Executive Summary The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act directs an additional $349 billion to the Small Business Administration (SBA) for the relief of small businesses. There is a clearly articulated need for this aid to be delivered…

Executive Summary The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provides substantial relief in the form of up to a year of forbearance to homeowners with mortgages backed by federal loans. The Act, however, does not expressly provide for…

Eakinomics: Making CARES Work The United States needs to channel its inner Denmark, according to Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman – the People’s Republic of Berkeley economists who gave us the Sanders and Warren wealth taxes. (By the way, why do New…

Eakinomics: Are Warrants Warranted? The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provides $32 billion in grants and $29 billion in credit assistance to the airline industry, as well as relief from excise taxation related to commercial air travel. As the administration,…

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provides $32 billion in grants and $29 billion in credit assistance to the airline industry, as well as relief from excise taxation related to commercial air travel.

Eakinomics: CARES Act in Historical Perspective I get it. It is Friday of another long week of quarantine. You’ve had it with the coronavirus and even more over talking about it. After a week of drama the Senate finally passed the…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis and how effective the federal government’s response will be in stabilizing the economy.

  

Executive Summary The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act is a $2 trillion stimulus package with significant implications across financial services and nearly all other aspects of the economy. The final version of the Act is similar to…

Executive Summary  President Trump has proposed purchasing oil to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which the government developed to counter crude oil supply shortages.   COVID-19 has contributed to excess crude oil supplies that have driven prices to historically low levels.  The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the latest unemployment numbers and the federal government’s response to the coronavirus.

The CARES Act includes substantial – in excess of $300 billion – individual rebates, among other relief provisions.

Executive Summary Stock buybacks are again part of the policy discussion, including the president opining that “we don’t want stock buybacks.” This assertion presumes that buybacks are in some way undesirable or damaging. A straightforward examination of buybacks indicates: Stock…

Douglas Holtz-Eakin penned a brief op-ed for The Boston Globe explaining what the government needs to do to prevent an economic disaster. He wrote: The problem is enormous, but not complicated: The coronavirus has brought large swaths of commerce —…

Eakinomics: Technology Policy and the Pandemic Ten days ago AAF began a policy of optional teleworking, and nearly everyone has been working remotely since. Hopefully you did not notice. Beginning today, the District of Columbia’s latest closure order goes into effect, ceasing all…

The United States’ largely permissionless approach to regulating technology has allowed innovators and companies to build services that make social distancing more achievable and tolerable for many. User-generated content on social-media platforms has both enabled useful information to spread and…

Executive Summary Since its creation in 2014 under the Workforce and Innovation Opportunity Act, the Department of Labor’s Dislocated Worker Grant (DWG) program has expanded to address several different circumstances and populations. In response to increased unemployment due to COVID-19,…

Eakinomics: Stimulus, Now Strategy The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act is now on track to be the law of the land (or at least appeared to be when this was written!), so the administration now has its stimulus bill. But…

The Congressional Budget Office baseline is grounded in a January economic forecast that is now historical fiction.

Executive Summary The Trump Administration has made several changes to immigration policy to reduce the spread of the coronavirus. The new policies aim to limit the flow of immigration with travel restrictions, border closures, and a temporary halt in new…

The United States faced economic crises after the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 financial collapse, but the coronavirus pandemic is producing the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, writes AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin in a new op-ed in The…

The U.S. Senate CARES Act provides $58 billion in loans and loans guarantees to the aviation industry, as well as relief from jet fuel excise taxation

Executive Summary The new paid sick and childcare leave provisions already enacted in H.R. 6201 would be changed by the recently introduce Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. As a result of Department of Labor and Treasury action,…

Executive Summary On March 23, the Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded on the already decisive deployment of tools from its monetary policy arsenal in seeking to mitigate the economic impacts of the coronavirus. In addition to expanding the powers of two…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the provisions in the Senate’s stimulus bill on MSNBC Live with Craig Melvin.

The CARES Act includes substantial – in excess of $300 billion – individual tax rebates and a delay in the April 15 tax-filing deadline, among other relief provisions.

Executive Summary On March 22, Senate Republicans released a revised draft of the CARES Act that reflected Democratic input; the Act is now a two trillion-dollar stimulus package with significant implications across financial services, tax, health and all other aspects…

Executive Summary • The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provides deferment of principal and interest payments on federal student loans for six months. • The Act only provides loan forgiveness for students that have or will withdraw…

Executive Summary The paid sick and childcare leave benefit included in H.R. 6201, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, is expected to go into effect on April 3rd, 2020. The legislation has outlined a funding mechanism of refunds from the…

Eakinomics: The Case for Supporting the Airlines Congress is considering the next step in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, and included in the mix is the request by U.S. airlines for $50 billion in cash grants and unsecured loans, as well…

Eakinomics: Buy American – Coronavirus Edition The idea of “Buy American” is hardly new; it has the same perpetual, misguided appeal as minimum wage laws and price controls on drugs. But research has shown that Buy American laws increase the cost of goods purchased by…

The Trump Administration is pursuing twocontradictory policies, one targeted at expanding trade and the other at restricting it, are both aimed at combating the coronavirus outbreak. Only one will have the desired effect.

After 9/11 the federal government provided nearly $7 billion in grants and loan-guarantee disbursements to airlines.

Executive Summary  President Trump has proposed purchasing oil to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which the government developed to counter crude oil supply shortages.   COVID-19 has contributed to excess crude oil supplies that have driven prices to historically low levels.  Because the SPR is already close…

In the midst of a week where the spread of COVID-19 took over the health and economic concerns of the nation, it is difficult to find much in the regular flow of regulations that comes anywhere close to the novel…

Executive Summary Companies with fewer than 500 employees are eligible for a loan for as much as $10 million, with wide flexibility on use; the total cost of this provision is $300 billion. Businesses will be able to achieve loan…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the steps needed to conduct a proper economic response to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

The CARES Act includes substantial – in excess of $100 billion – individual tax rebates and a delay in the April 15 tax-filing deadline, among other relief provisions

AAF’s Director of Fiscal Policy Gordon Gray discusses the three most consequential business tax provisions in the CARES Act.

As the United States considers federal data protection legislation, policymakers should consider how lessons from the pandemic illustrate the tradeoffs associated with stringent policies and the different choices individuals may make when it comes to their data privacy.   Stringent data…

Personal information, such as location and health data, can provide important insights that can improve public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies working to provide data are taking steps to use privacy-sensitive technology and allowing individuals to opt-in to…

Eakinomics: Helping and Over-Helping People in Response to COVID-19 The Families First Act and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act provided enormous support for workers and families through checks of up to $1,200 per person, paid leave, enhanced unemployment insurance, increased nutrition assistance,…

Eakinomics: A Post-CARES Policy Platform The 2nd quarter of 2020 will experience a dramatic economic collapse, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling at rates in excess of 20 percent (annual rate). The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) is designed to…

Eakinomics: CBO and CARES On April 16, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its preliminary analysis of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the CARES Act). Although widely touted as costing over $2 trillion, CBO concluded that “the act will increase…

Eakinomics: Scandal, Finger-pointing, and the PPP This past week featured a lot of carping about the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) created by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. There were a spate of stories about large, multi-location businesses – Shake Shack, Ruth’s…

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the May jobs report and how it may impact future aid packages on CNBC.

 

AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the May jobs report and how the report’s numbers could impact a fourth legislative aid package.

United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works *The views expressed here are my own and not those of the American Action Forum. I thank Gordon Gray and Thomas Wade for their insight and assistance. Chairman Barasso, Ranking Member…

United States House of Representatives Committee on the Budget *The views expressed here are my own and not those of the American Action Forum. I thank Gordon Gray and Thomas Wade for their insight and assistance. Chairman Yarmuth, Ranking Member…